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October 4, 2004
The Insurgency
According to critics of our operations in Iraq, the country is spinning out of control. The insurgency is growing, we are unable to suppress it, and civil war is on the horizon. But just how widespread is the insurgency? Wretchard, author of the Belmont Club blog, writes that
A New York Times article quoting a private security group's data shows that 41% of all terror attacks in Iraq take place in 0.17% of the country -- a thousand attacks concentrated in 734 square kilometers of Baghdad -- attacks which have almost no military value -- only a propaganda one. It is imperative from the terrorist point of view that their depredations take place, not in the unwitnessed wastes of the Western desert, but before a global audience.And this goes to the heart of the matter, doesn't it? The insurgents, or terrorists, or whatever we'll call them, surely cannot win on the battlefield. And they know this. They seem to have given up traditional infantry attacks on U.S. forces for the roadside bomb and mortar attack.
The futility of a headlong attack on a U.S. unit of any size was seen during the initial invasion and in it's immediate aftermath, when black-pajama clad Saddam fadayeen were killed by the thousands and little loss to us. Quickly recognizing that we could not be driven from their country by such attacks, they switched tactics to outright terrorism.
In short, they hope to wear us down in hopes that we will grow weary and withdraw our troops. Again we see that battlefield success is not the only road to victory. Recall the 1975 conversation in Hanoi between the American and Vietnamese colonels recounted in an earlier post:
"You know you never defeated us on the battlefield," said the American colonel.The country that now occupies Saigon, er, Ho Chi Minh City, won that war.The North Vietnamese colonel pondered this remark a moment. "That may be so," he replied, "but it is also irrelevant."
Back to Wretchard's post. The insurgents, as primitive and backward as their religious fanaticism seems to us, have learned how to play to the westerm media. They read the papers and view the newscasts. They see who is running for office here in the United States. They see that one candidate will stay the course, and that even though his policies may at times be flawed, with him in office they cannot win. With the other a withdrawal of troops before the job is finished is possible, even probable.
The insurgents therefore stage their attacks where they can achieve maximim political value. Because so many of the attacks appear under their noses, much of the western media uncritically assumes that the insurgency is widespread throughout Iraq. It is but a short step from that assumption to the conclusion that we are losing.
For an idea as to how this works, go back and read the entire post at Belmont Club to see how Reuters spun a recent attack on US forces that killed nearby Iraqi civilians.
This war has always been about willpower. Who has the will to stick it out in the face of continued difficulties. It is all the more difficult in the face a media that often unwillingly plays into the hands of the insurgents.
Posted by Tom at October 4, 2004 10:00 AM
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