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November 30, 2004
The Biggest Roadblock
Two weeks ago the new Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, continued to demand a "right of return" for Palestinian refuges.
If he means it, and sticks to this position, any peace talks are doomed.
The reason is quite simple. What the Palestinians intend on doing is flooding Israel proper (pre-1967 borders) with their people. Israel is a democracy, with an influx of some four million Arabs they could literaly vote the country out of existance.
On May 14, 1948, the state of Israel was proclaimed, in accordance with UN partition plan of a year earlier. The short version is that the land in what is today Israel and the West Bank was to be divided into two new countries; Israel and Palestine. The Arabs did not accept this arrangement, and invaded the new country of Israel with some five armies. A war ensued, and in the end the Israelis prevailed.
Most of the Arabs who lived in Palestine fled during the war. Why they did so depends one who you believe. The Israelis will tell you that they fled because Arab governments told them to. They broadcast messages to the Arabs who lived in Palestine to move out, to get out of the way of their invading armies. The Arabs say no, the Israelis chased them out. The truth is probably somewhere in between.
Either way, the point is that there are today somewhere around four million Palestinians who claim land in Israel proper. These are the decendants of the 1948 550,000 to 700,000 refuges.
There are currently some 6,800,000 Israelis. About 80% of them are Jewish. It doesn't take a political genius to figure out what Israel as we know it will cease to exist if four million hostile Arabs suddenly take up residence there.
Obviously, then, no sane Israeli will accept such a situation. The "right of return" is a deal-breaker.
But Abbas may not really mean what he says. His situation is precarious, as assassination is always near for any Palestinian leader who deviates from the party line. He may think that he "has to say these things" in order to remain in control.
On the other hand, we can only judge someone on what they say and do. Arafat was in the habit of telling western audiences the nice reasonable things that they wanted to hear, and then turning around and, in Arabic, delivering a fire-breathing speach in which he pledged to drive Israel into the sea. Abbas is going to have to do better if he wishes to obtain a country for his people.
The good news, is there is any, is that the Geneva Accord just agreed to by both parties calls on them to give up their "right of return." We'll know before long whether Abbas is up to the job.
Posted by Tom at November 30, 2004 12:30 PM
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