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February 28, 2005
Just War Series - Proportionality
Summary and Outline:
Introduction to Just War Theory
I. Recourse to War - jus ad bellum
- Just Cause
- Competent Authority
- Comparative Justice
- Right Intention
- Last Resort
- Probability of Success
- Proportionality
- Discrimination
- Proportionality
Proportionality in the decision to go to war means "...that the damage to be inflicted and the costs incurred by war must be proportionate to the good expected by taking up arms." (all quotes Martino unless otherwise noted).
In an older time the discussion of proportionality in this context centered around reasons for going to war that are usually considered unjust today; pure retribution, "vindictiveness," or collecting debts in default. Much of the discussion had to do with punishment; does the good that would come from punishing the unjust outweigh the damage that would be incurred? Further, only the damage done and lives lost on "your side" were considered; no one cared much what happened to the enemy population.
In modern times, we in the West truly consider whether the damage done and lives lost on both sides justify the good that we hope will result.
Defending against Aggression
It may seem obvious to some of us that "of course we should defend against an invading force." And sometimes this is the case. As we shall see, however, the issue gets complicated.
After all, the cost of defending against aggression can be quite large. Consider the number killed in the two world wars of the twentieth century:
World War I: 5 million military and 3.5 million civilians for the allies, (3.3 million military and 8-9 million civilians for the Central Powers).
World War II: 12 million military and 24 million civilians for the allies ( 6.3 million military and 1 million civilians for the Axis powers) 52 million military and civilian total for both sides.
Yet even the 52 million deaths of the Second World War would have paled beside a nuclear war involving the West, the Soviet Union, and China (which, depending on the timeframe, would probably have been dragged in). Hundreds of millions if not a billion or so lives would have been lost. Would it have been worth it?
Many decided no. "Better Red than Dead" may have been the rallying cry of the far left, but it found sympathizers across the political spectrum. Political leaders in the West convinced the voters to allow them to build tens of thousands of nuclear weapons during the years of the Cold War. Given the frightening aspect of nuclear war, one might say we were lucky to have gotten away with it for so long. Certainly, by the 1980's, the decision to beef up our defenses with the addition of intermediate range missiles (Pershing II and Ground Launched Cruise Missiles (GLCMs)) was highly controversial and provoked a large "peace" movement. That planners faced determined opposition despite a pre-existing Soviet arsenal of highly capable SS-20s speaks volumes as to the perceived cost of war versus a status akin to "Findlandization."
The Cost of Not Resisting
But in order for the above discussion to be meaningful, we need to consider the cost of not resisting aggression. A Europe run by Hitler's Germany is too horrible to imagine, and once he got nuclear weapons and long-range missiles... one trembles at the thought. A Pacific Empire run by the perpetuators of the Rape of Nanking is not a pleasant thought either.
What if the United States, or at least Western Europe, had peacefully submitted to the Soviet Union? To get an idea of what we would have been in for, let's see how many of their own people communist governments killed. The Black Book of Communism states that USSR killed some 65 million, China 35 million, and the "lesser" communist countries a few million more. The mind boggles at the statistics.
The point, of course, is that we would have suffered terribly had they taken us over peacefully. We may well have ended up both red and dead.
One must beware of a strict "cost-accounting" approach. Quality of life, or values, mattesr too. Who would accept life as a slave by any of the aforementioned tyrannies?
Thus, even fighting a nuclear war with one or another of the communist tyrannies meets this test of proportionality.
When it's Not So Simple
Still, it may be said that the above examples are obvious. It isn't always this simple.
The Falklands War - In 1982 the military junta that ruled Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands. The Falklands were small islands of the Argintinian east coast than were owned by the UK, and on which lived several thousand Britains (The Argentineans called them the Malvinas). Given that the Argentinean junta was no Hitlerian regime, that the islanders would have been allowed to leave peacefully, and that much blood might be lost in an attempt to retake the islands, one may argue that the decision of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher did not meet the proportionality test. Indeed, had the British lost more ships public opinion might well have turned against the war. At what point is it not worth it anymore? I believe that the war was worth it, and that the British did the right thing. My point here is simply to pose question; at what price?
The "Breakaway" province - The American Civil war is the obvious example, but what about Great Britain and Northern Ireland, or Spain and it's Basque region? In the latter two examples the provinces have not quite broken off, and there are plenty in each who want to stay with the home country, but at what point does it not become worth it anymore? I'll not try to answer these questions here, as I have neither time nor sufficient knowledge, but here again my purpose is to provide a framework for thought and discussion.
Syria and Iran - Today we see them aiding the insurgent terrorists in Iraq. Much of the debate over whether we should attack Syria or Iran can be framed in terms of proportion; would the death and destruction, not to mention the risk of creating a wider war, be worth the benefits of success?
Afghanistan - If we had simply been after a small band of ragtag terrorists capable of one attack only, if our invasion had been modeled on that of the Soviets, and if we had thus caused tremendous damage and killed lots of people, one might say that we had not met the test of proportionality. That the reality has been different in every particular means that we have in fact met this test of proportionality
Iraq - Did our invasion pass this test of Just War Theory? I think it did. The military invasion was a magnificent work whereby we destroyed the enemy forces in the minimum time and ended major combat operations in the shortest possible time. This lightning attack, coupled with the careful use of precision weapons, kept casualties on both sides, and damage to a minimum. Obviously we killed many enemy soldiers (regulars and irregulars), and just as obviously civilians were killed also. By any historical standard, however, the war was and is a model of proportionality. Even this current war against the insurgent terrorists, when cities such as Fallujah suffer much damage during operations, pales besides historical examples. It passes this first test of Proportionality because the good that has come from our work is before our eyes every day: the announcement by Libya that they would now truly give up their WMD (and by all accounts they have), the elections in Iraq, new elections in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, the announcement that opposition candidates would be allowed in Egypt, and I'm sure many other examples I can't think of at this time.
Next Up - Discrimination, which is the first test of Part II, Conduct in War
Posted by Tom at February 28, 2005 3:00 PM
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