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February 9, 2005
Polls and Demographic Trends
A battle royale is developing over whether Social Security should be reformed, and if so, what should be done. What do the people actually think? I'm sure there are all sorts of polls out there, and frankly I do not have time to research them all and examine their methodology. A few recent ones struck me as important, however. Here's a report by Donald Lambro on two recent polls, the Annenberg poll and a Zogby poll:
An Annenberg poll last December showed that 54 percent of Hispanics support the concept of "allowing workers to invest Social Security funds in the stock market."Greg Pierce, also of the Washington Times, reports on a column by Dick Morris that describes that support for the president's plan varies by age;
A more recent poll by John Zogby found that more than 50 percent of black voters who liked the idea wanted to invest as much as half of the payroll tax in individual accounts to get a better return on their tax contributions.
"On Social Security reform, you are looking at younger voters, union members and minorities that find this idea popular," Zogby told me. Democratic leaders "are not talking to their own base, let along the rest of middle America," he said.
The biggest surprise in his poll, Zogby said, was that nearly one-third of all Democrats said they liked Mr. Bush's idea.
"Pollster Scott Rasmussen reports that support for private investment skews dramatically by age group. Those aged 18 to 29 back it by 65 percent to 22 percent. Thirtysomething voters support it by 63-28; those in their 40s, 59-30.I don't have time to check this morning, but something tells me that the AARP will produce a poll showing just the opposite. Intuition and everyday observation, however, tells me that the Rasmussen poll has it right.
"But voters between the ages of 50 and 64 oppose the private-investment option by 49-41, and those over 65, by 63-27.
"So the only voters who oppose private investment are those whom the reforms won't touch. Those for whom the changes are real, generally support them." Mr. Morris said.
The Democrats may well succeed in blocking the president's proposals. But although they may win the battle, it is hard to see how they can win the war. As long as they persist in being the party of "no" to private accounts, demographic trends are not in their favor.
Posted by Tom at February 9, 2005 10:02 AM
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