The Redhunter

First, let's get the Russians out of the way.
By this I mean an enemy who has the capability to fire serious amounts of nuclear weaponry our way. It was often said during the Cold War that missile defense was pointless because we couldn't stop every one they fired at us. Plenty would get though, and the devastation would be terrible. Better to rely on treaties and Mutual Assured Destruction.

There are several things wrong with these arguments. One, MAD is of dubious morality, especially when the targeting is countervalue (population centers) rather than counterforce (military targets). Second, treaties would never do much good anyway. Third, worst case, by reducing even a percentage of incoming missiles we would avoid at least some damage. I never did buy the "I'd rather be dead than live in a post-nuclear world" stuff. I'll take my chances alive, thank you. I at least want a chance to live. And you have no business telling Americans that they'd be better of dead anyway.

The Alternate Delivery Argument
Some say that if we build defenses against missiles "all our enemies have to do is to find another way to deliver them." Loftus was making just such an argument. If we build a defense against missiles, our enemy will build low-to-the-ground cruise missiles. Or they'll smuggle them into our cities. It's sort of an updated Maginot Line argument.

But by this logic we may as well not defend against anything. Airport security? They'll just hijack trains. Harbor security? They'll just come across the border. Firewalls on our computer systems? They'll just get work to get jobs with clearances and subvert systems from within. For that matter, why build defenses against anything?

But a Missile Attack is not Probable
This is another version of the argument made above. The problem with it is that all you have to do is look around the world and see the types and numbers of missiles our enemies have. All too many pose a serious threat to our country.

But it would be Suicide for them to Attack Us
Al-Qaeda crazies are one thing, this line of argument goes, but leaders of nation-states have too much to lose.

Sometimes this argument holds water. For example, once Breshnev came into power, the Soviet Union was not going to up and launch nuclear strikes on us. They were evil, but not crazy. Same with the Chinese in the post-Mao Tse-Tung era.

But even this starts to fall apart, and I haven't even gotten to the main part of my counter-argument. Note what I said above; "in the post...era" Khrushchev and Mao were dangerous and unpredictable, the former a ranting warmonger, and the latter completely uncaring about the possible deaths of millions of his countrymen in a nuclear war with the United States (Mao even scared the Russians, who came away shaken after conversations with him on this subject).

But the main problem with this anti-missile defense argument is that it assumes that foreign leaders will behave according to our definition of what is rational. It is "mirror image" thinking; "they would do such-and-such because if I were in their shoes it is what I would do." Now is not the time or place for a hundred examples from history, but a quick review of the Second World War should disbuse anyone of the notion that totalitarians act rationally.

It Won't Work
This argument is stated in various forms. Another version is "they'll always be one step ahead of us". No matter how it is stated, what it comes down to is a technical argument that our technology won't be up the task.

I don't have the time to do a full-scale dissertation, but suffice it to make a few points. One, development of an ABM system will take time. Because of constant opposition from Democrats, we are behind we should be. We lost much time during the 1990s. Second, we put a man on the moon thirty-five years ago, folks. Come on, of course we can do it if we set our minds (and money) to the task. Yes there will be failures along the way. Many, probably. But all test programs are full of failures (and if aircraft, crashes).

Ok, enough for now. Not a terribly topical post, I realize, but one I wanted to write about.