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June 14, 2005
Trouble in Syria?
Is Bashar al-Assad on the Rocks? StrategyPage thinks so:
There has been rising dissatisfaction with his rule in Syria. Because of economic mismanagement, and the collapse of the Baath Party in Iraq, the Syrian Baath Party has lost any credibility as a revolutionary, pan-Arab movement, and is largely controlled by corrupt, aging bureaucrats who have blocked any attempts at reform. The party is also very narrowly-based, drawing most of its strength from the Alawite minority, a Moslem religious sect that includes only about 15 percent of the population. This has led to an increase in sympathy for Islamic radical movements, which tend to consider any Moslem not Sunni to be heretics. ...Assad seems to believe that reforms are needed to permit the Baath Party to remain in power, including abandonment of the party's pan-Arab pretensions to focus on Syria's needs, broadening the party's base, and liberalizing economic and social controls. Since the extreme Baathists view his withdrawal from Lebanon as a sign of weakness, Assad may take advantage of an impending party congress to attempt a purge the dead wood. The resulting power struggle may prove interesting.
Things could heat up very quicky. As Natan Sharansky is fond of pointing out, dictatorships look strong to outsiders but in fact are fragile. His father, Hafez al-Assad, maintained an iron-tight grip on the country. The son does not seem as politically adept.
The United States should keep a full-court press on Syria. This regime could be on its last legs. True, there is no guarantee that a reformists would come to power should the current one fall. But "stability uber alles" is always a bad policy. Sometimes shaking the tree is worth the effort, and Syria is one of them.
Posted by Tom at June 14, 2005 10:12 PM
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