The Redhunter

Background

Korean history is long and complicated, and due to physical proximity, the peninsula has been much influenced by China. For our purposes we will limit ourselves to the start of the twentieth century.

After Japan defeated Russia in the Russo-Japanese War in 1905, Korea became a protectorate of Japan. Japan formally annexed the peninsula in 1910, and began a long reign of oppression that only ended with their defeat in 1945.

At the end of World War II the peninsula was divided into two occupation zones along the 38th parallel. The United States administered the Southern half, and the Soviet Union the Northern half. As in Germany, the division was only meant to last a short while, until elections could be arranged and a government formed. However, just as with the situation in Europe, divisions between the Soviet Union and the West quickly overshadowed ideas of post-war cooperation, and two governments in Korea were set up. In February of 1946, the Red Army, which occupied the Northern half of the peninsula, set up a communist government under Kim Il Sung. The U.S. refused to recognize the communist government and in 1948 helped set up a government under Rhee Syngman in the South.

In June of 1950 the DPRK invaded South Korea (Republic of Korea, or ROK). At the time this was seen as part of a global attempt by the communists to assert control over as much territory as possible, and post-Cold War research has confirmed that Joseph Stalin gave his blessing to the attack. After initial success by the North, United States forces, under the auspices of the United Nations, stopped the communist attack. After an ambitious amphibious attack at Inchon planned by Gen. Douglas MacArthur, routed the North Korean army along the Chinese border. Intervention by Chinese troops resulted in temporary defeats for the United States and her allies, who eventually stabilized the front around the 38th parallel. Long and arduous peace talks eventually produced an armistice. No peace treaty has ever been signed, so the parties are still officially at war. The 38th parallel dividing the two Koreas is the world’s most heavily militarized border.

The Korean War (1950 – 1953) became the defining event for the peninsula for the rest of the twentieth century, and indeed to this present day. The DPRK has never given up its desire to overrun the South, and maintains a very large military establishment. The government of the ROK used fear of Northern aggression to resist democratic reforms. The United States maintains some 32,500 troops in the ROK to maintain a forward defense (however, outside of Seoul) , though this will drop to 25,000 by 2008.

The first twenty-five or so years of South Korean history was marked by as series of authoritarian governments. Despite this, the South experienced strong economic growth, causing it to be labeled one of the “Asian-tigers”. However, popular dissatisfaction with the government came to a head after the 1979 assassination of Park Chunghee, with protests against authoritarian rule roiling the South for the next twelve years. Finally, in 1987, the government agreed to hold elections and Roh Tae-woo was elected president. This event started a process that led the South toward becoming a democratic government, which it is today.

The current ROK government under President Kim Tae-chung has adopted a “Sunshine Policy” towards the North. This policy stresses dialogue with the North, rather than military buildup and economic sanctions and is supported most strongly by the younger generation of Koreans that did not live through the Korean War.

The government in the North remains a hard-line communist dictatorship. It is perhaps the last fully Stalinist dictatorship in the world today. Its leader is Kim Jong Il, son of Kim Il Sung, who died in 1994. Their official governing philosophy is “Juche”, or “self-reliance”, and is marked by the extreme form of isolation that the government has imposed on its relations with the rest of the world. The North’s economy is a veritable “basket case”, and the agricultural situation has gotten so bad that starvation is commonplace in much of the country with some estimates as high as 3.5 million deaths .

Current Issues

Military – The DPRK is a significant military threat to the United States and our allies, most notably South Korea and Japan. Despite massive economic failure resulting in one of the lowest per capita incomes in the world, the DPRK maintains a million-man military (Korean People’s Army, or KPA) capable of doing significant damage to South Korea and other countries. Their quest for nuclear weapons, now probably a reality, makes them all the more dangerous.

One primary issue in a conventional war on the peninsula is that more than 25% of the South’s population lives near their Northern border. Seoul, the capital of the ROK, is less than forty miles from the DPRK. The KPA keeps most of its forces along the 120 mile DMZ . The KPA has built extensive underground fortifications housing thousands of artillery and short-range rocket launchers capable of inflicting massive damage on Seoul and its surroundings on short notice.

Despite the size of the KPA, it is a technologically backward force. Their strength is in shear numbers and firepower. That the United States would ultimately prevail in such a conflict, though with current strains on US forces in the War on Terror, the total devastation to South Korea would be extreme.

The KPA also maintains chemical and biological weapons, and has refused to sign international agreements banning such weapons. Although they are unlikely to possess much in the way of pathogens, they do have a large and mature chemical weapons industry. The KPA possesses and is capable of delivering all types of chemical weapons; blister, nerve, choking, and blood agents. The North’s desire for hard currency cannot be forgotten when examining their willingness to export such WMD technology to unstable regimes or terrorist organizations.

The North is currently engaged in developing long-range missiles that could theoretically carry nuclear warheads. The No Dong and Taepo Dong 1 can hit Japan, while the Taepo Dong 2, with a 4,000 - 6,000 km range, can strike U.S. basis in the Pacific such as Guam, as well as Alaska. A 3-stage version of the Taepo Dong 2 is under development, which may be capable of delivering a warhead to the western United States.

Most alarming of all is their relentless march toward obtaining nuclear weapons. Despite a variety of U.S. and allied approaches, ranging from all carrot to all stick, nothing has dissuaded them from this goal. The DPRK claimed in 2003, and formally in 2005, that they did in fact possess nuclear weapons, and although it is entirely possible that this was a calculated bluff, between this statement and other sources prudence dictates that we assume that they currently possesses 2 – 6 bombs. Whether they are deliverable on missiles, artillery, or even aircraft is another matter. Recent rumors suggest they intend on testing a nuclear device perhaps as early as June 2005.

Most significantly is the propaganda that emanates almost daily from the DPRK propaganda machine. Despite it being the worst sort of crude communist propaganda, it reminds us of the extreme threat that this nation poses to our allies and us.

Terror – the DPRK represents a terrorist threat to the United States and our allies. The nature of their threat takes on several forms, and is unique in the annals of terrorism around the world.

The history of DPRK terrorist activities is extensive and alarming. Rather than use proxy organizations, they have carried out operations themselves. “Fishing boats” have off-loaded agents who have gone ashore in Japan and kidnapped civilians walking along the beach. The Japanese victims were taken to North Korea where they were kept as virtual slaves and forced to teach Japanese to North Koreans.

In 1983 DPRK agents tried to kill South Korean President Chun Doo Hwan, who was visiting Burma (now Myanmar). In 1987, they bombed KAL flight 858, killing 115. South Korea believes that in 1996 DPRK agents killed one of their diplomats in Vladivostok, Russia. To this day they harbor four members of the 70’s era communist Japanese Red Army Faction terrorist group. In 1970 these Japanese hijacked a JAL airliner and flew it to North Korea, seeking asylum.

In the past the DPRK has been suspected of selling weapons to groups to separatist groups such as the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in the Philippines.

More recently is the likelihood that the DPRK has openly spread the threat of missile and nuclear terror via the A.Q. Khan network. The potential for further attempts to sell or give a nuclear technology or weapons to a terrorist group such as Al-Qaeda remains a primary concern.

Economic - While the DPRK does not represent an economic threat to the United States or our allies; the abysmal state of their economy concerns us both because of the human tragedy and the prospects for mass unrest in the case of regime collapse.

Civil – North Korea is one of the worst violators of human rights in the world. The government is a one-man dictatorship on the Hitler/Stalinist model. There is absolutely no freedom of the press, of religion, or any pretense of fair trails for those accused of a crime. Public executions are common. Forced labor camps, torture, even trafficking in North Korean “wives” for Chinese men. There is absolutely no civil society, as we understand it, in North Korea.

Assessment

The situation with regards to the DPRK is unfortunately bleak. The government of that country seems determined to continue its present course towards maintaining totalitarian control of the population, a failed economic central planning model, and a pursuit of nuclear weapons and the missiles with which to deliver them to a wide range of targets.

Various attempts over the years have been made to get the DPRK to change its ways, and none have succeeded. The history of the country forces us to assume the worst when dealing with it. Pyongyang seems to sway between ratcheting up the tension and bringing it back down again. Whichever tactic they adopt at the moment is designed to gain momentary advantage while they continue to pursue their nefarious goals.

Additionally we note that China may well be playing North Korea off against the United States in an attempt to divert us from Taiwan. While this is largely speculation, it is plausible given the lack of Chinese pressure on the DPRK on issues from nuclear weapons to a refusal to impose sanctions.

Recommendations

The editors recommend that the United States adopt (or continue to follow) the following policies with regards to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea:

1. Require multinational talks, the six-party talks including the U.S., China, Russia, South Korea, Japan and North Korea, to end the current nuclear crisis. Under no circumstance should the U.S. participate in bi-lateral negotiations with the DPRK.

2. Continue humanitarian aid regardless of the actions of the DPRK. While this does open the door to abuses, such as the possibility that the DPRK could divert aid to its military, we believe that the suffering of the North Korean people is such that food and medical aid needs to be sent regardless of “political” consequences. In order to avoid the abuses of the “Oil for Food” scandal, humanitarian aid needs to be managed through nations and organizations that have a proven record (i.e. not the United Nations).

3. The U.S. should consider potential further actions against the DPRK should they refuse to adhere to their pledge for a nuclear free Korean peninsula. This should include U.N. sanctions, an embargo of non-humanitarian aid, cessation of fuel supply and the permanent end to KEDO (Korean Peninsular Energy Organization).

4. We must pressure China to stop their forcible return of North Korean refugees. If China refuses to accept them, we should work towards finding them residence in South Korea or elsewhere.

5. A strong military presence needs to be maintained in the Republic of Korea. The DPRK needs to understand clearly that the United States will respond to military action on their part, and only our continued presences in the region or on the peninsula will ensure that. This remains an additional incentive for the U.S. to maintain a larger naval force structure and avoid the potential pitfalls of carrier fleet reduction.

6. The United States, Japan and our allies should continue to vigorously pursue all deployable options for missile defense.