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January 28, 2006

The Palestinian Elections

Hamas has won 76 seats out of a possible 132 in the Palestinian Parliament. Fatah, founded by Yassir Arafat and the party of (president?) Mahmoud Abbas, received 43 seats. The balance went to a variety of other parties. As we've heard on the news again and again, this is either a "stunning victory" for Hamas or a "stunning defeat" for Fatah, depending on which broadcast you listen to.

Is this outcome a good thing or a bad thing for Israel and the United States?

Is Democracy Always Good?

First, we need to get this out of the way: elections mean that people get to choose, it does not mean that they will make the choice that we want them to make. This does not, however, mean that elections themselves are wrong or bad. Nor do I brook any favor with the argument that "some people aren't ready for democracy."

The entire philisophical question of "can people elect a tyranny" cannot be answered in full here. People do have the right to elect pretty much whomever they want, but some freedoms are not up for a vote. Reasonable people can debate the limits.

However, I see all too many people using this as an excuse to simply bash the Bush Administration and it's goal of bringing democracy to the Middle East. Some, like bigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft, favor stability uber alles. To them, "stable" but "friendly" dictators are to be prefered. On the far left and far right, we hear the "they can't handle democracy" line. Some on the left just want to use anything they can to attack our president and I'm sure we'll hear the "ha! I told you democracy wouldn't work!"

More seriously, the results of the elections mean that they weren't held soon enough, say, 10 or 20 years ago. As Natan Scharansky said in his book "The Case for Democracy", outlines the problem with the Oslo agreements, in which Israel and the US agreed not to push the Palestinians towardds democracy, believing that shoring up a dictator like Arafat was the best road to peace:

Whereas the Helsinki agreements forged a direct link between human rights and East-West relations, the Oslo accords failed to establish any connection between human rights and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Worse, as would later become clear in word and deed, Oslo's architects actually believed that such a link would be detrimental to the interests of both parties.

Because no such link was ever established, the Palestinians had no incentive to reform. Since they didn't reform, Fatah became more and more corrupt. We saw the results earlier this week, in which voters chose Hamas, believing they would clean up the corruption.

What Does It Mean?

Some have said that this brings "unavoidable clarity to the central issues in the region" and that, along with recent statements by Iranian president Ahmadinejad, make "impossible for (most) apologists to minimize the nature of the threats we face." Also gone will by the hypcrisy of Yassir Arafat, when he would "denounce them(terrorists) in English in the morning and celebrate them in Arabic in the afternoon. Hamas will not have that luxury".

No doubt moral clarity is a good thing. I always thought that those who criticized Ronald Reagan for his "evil empire" speech, and those who attacked George W Bush for his "axis of evil" characterization, were very misguided.

Another aspect of this is that now Hamas will have to perform. It is easy to criticize when on the outside, and tough rhetoric always whips up one's followers. But they will find that actually running a government is not so easy, and that public support is fickle. A leader in the Lebanese parliament seemed to speak for many Arab governments when he said that "Hamas had better get its act together." Other Muslim and Arab leaders voiced similar sentiments.

Hamas also has to decide whether it wants to become anything more than just a terrorist organization. The Wall Street Journal opined that it "...may even have the long-run benefit of educating Palestinians about the terrible cost of their political choices." The United States, let alone Israel, will not allow a state governed by terrorists to emerge in Palestine.

Besides clean government, voters also chose Hamas because they believe it can bring victory against Israel. Powerline observes "the fact is that a great many Palestinians, perhaps a majority, are living in a fantasy world in which the massacre of the Jews will somehow solve their problems." This is no doubt true, just as it is true that increased terrorism will only make matters worse for Palestinians.

Perhaps they will have to learn the hard way. The Bush Administration has announced that it will not deal with Hamas "unless it renounces its goal of destroying Israel." We will see whether the administration will be able to resist the inevitable calls that will eventually come to "recognize reality" and deal with the "legitimate representatives of the Palestinian people" that we will soon be hearing.

And They Want Their Own Country?

The response of Fatah supporters to the Hamas victory has been to riot and torch cars. No doubt we will hear many excuses from the left about how this is the result of their being misteated by the Israelis, poverty, not being "respected", bad childhoods....

Whatever. Last September Belmont Club reported that Palestinians werewrecking, dismantling, and carrying off very expensive greenhouses left for them in Gaza when the Israelis evacuated. The high-tech greenhouses could have been a source of much revinue for the Palestinians. That the Palestinian security forces did nothing to stop the looting is telling. If they cannot or will not stop looting, how can they run a country?

Behavior such as this can only harm their aspirations to nationhood.

The anti-Semitic portion of the world, which is all to great a part of it, will always excuse such behavior. The part that counts toward granting the Palestinians a country, the US and Israel, will not. And so as long as they behave this way, they'll stay poor and nationless.

Posted by Tom at January 28, 2006 11:00 AM

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