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March 9, 2006
China - Taiwan: Endgame
Here's the short version of how a war over Taiwan might go. I will expand on this later when I have more time.
China will not, in my opinion, attempt an amphibious or airborne attack, because they do not have the logistical capabalities to support any troops they manage to get across the straights. Rather, they will announce a blockade of Taiwan, enforced with submarines and air power.
Commerce to and from Taiwan will immediately end. It doesn't really matter whether the PLA has the military capabilities or not, for no shipping company in the world will take such a risk.
China will then bombard Taiwan with a few hundred of the medium-range missiles, all armed with conventional warheads. The targets will mostly be military, along with ports and civilian airports. The damage will not be great, or even "military significant", but this is not the point. Their purpose is do demoralize the Taiwanese and convince them that they are helpless and that their leaders cannot defend them.
The United States will quickly bring forces to bear by sending as many carrier battle groups into the area as possible. I don't think it really matters whether a Republican or Democrat is in office, either will feel obliged to respond unless Taiwan did something particulally egregious to bring on the criris. Of course, we will already have submarines in the area, and China will already be missing several of theirs.
In the meantime there will be furious battles in the skies above and around Taiwan. I'm not sure how well the Taiwanese will do, and some of the reports I read are not encouraging. Losses on both sides will be severe, but in the short run I think the Taiwanese can hold their own. The US Air Force will be engaged with aircraft based in Japan, Guam, and Okinawa. Depending on the year this takes place (my theory is late 2008 - 2010), we will either have mostly F-15s, or a mix of F-15s, F-22s, and maybe some of the JSF F-35. If the latter aircraft are involved, the Chinese will find themselves short of planes very quickly.
At this point the Chinese will be demanding that the ROC government accept their terms for a cease-fire, which will amount to reunification under mainland rule. I don't know enough about Taiwanese politics or the people there to say how firm their resolve is, for right now I'm just stating the issues. Either way, the point is that China will try to force and an end favorable to itself before the US Navy arrives.
The Chinese military has a saying; "sink a carrier, win the war". It is important to note that this is not meant in a traditional military sense. What they mean is that by sinking or heavily damaging a carrier they believe that the American people will say "this isn't worth it", and will demand an end to hostilities. Given that there are some 6,000 sailors on one of these behemoths, the casualties would be astronomical whether the ship is sunk or not.
I don't know that the American people would definately respond in this manner, because it is also possible that they (the majority) will respond in by demanding the destruction of the entire Chinese fleet. It all depends, I think, on the circumstances that lead up to the conflict.
Assuming the Chinese are unsuccessful in inflicting serious damage on the American fleet, the war will soon turn against them. Time will work against China. The presence of several carrier battle groups will bolster morale on the island nation. We will turn the tables on the Chinese, blockading their ports, and sinking their ships or forcing them to hold up in port.
At this point the Chinese leadership will be desperate, and the most dangerous part begins. They will feel much pressure to threaten, or even use, nuclear weapons. They will certainly threaten the continental United States and our bases in the Pacific. They will also threaten Japan, whose navy and air force will be involved, albeit in limited roles.
The US response will be cautious. Having been successful up to this point, it would be foolhardy to provoke the Chinese leadership into making a rash decision. We will probably issue a statement saying that we will not attack the Chinese mainland, and will put forth a strong diplomatic effort to convince the parties to return to the status quo, perhaps with the promise of further negotiations in the future. Depending on the military situation, we might even announce that we were pulling a carrier battle group back a bit farther from China.
The big question is whether the Chinese leadership will get so desperate that they feel that they will use nuclear weapons in some limited fashion to "save face". If they do, they will most certainly not hit the United States itself, they might try to hit a carrier battle group, or come close enought to cause some damage. Lobbing a few missiles and then claiming a propaganda victory is not out of the question. Another, more frightening scenario, is that they hit Guam or Okinawa (where they could hit both the US and Japan).
All conjecture, of course. Heaven forbid it should come to any of this.
While you're hear, hop on over to The View from Taiwan, where Michael Turton has written a lengthy and very intesting fictional account of a war over Taiwan. Interestingly, his scenario also takes place in 20008.
Posted by Tom at March 9, 2006 9:37 PM
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Comments
Gee Red, I know my blog is not a font of optimism, but, uh, thanks for this "uplifiting" post. Quite palusible, however.
Posted by: Individ at March 10, 2006 3:58 PM
Just a few comments:
I don't know enough about Taiwanese politics or the people there to say how firm their resolve is, for right now I'm just stating the issues.
I'm no expert, either. I've seen some very contradictory polls in the papers here, which have me scratching my head. Something like 2/3s of all college-age Taiwanese men try to avoid the draft (my recollection of the number may be faulty). Yet 77% of the total population has said they're willing to fight if the country is attacked.
Huh?? So if the young men aren't willing to serve, will the grey-haired grannies be the ones hauling around the M-16s?
The Chinese military has a saying; "sink a carrier, win the war".
I sure hope THIS guy's wrong about how easy it is to do that:
http://www.exile.ru/2002-December-11/war_nerd.html
And you're right that this is all conjecture. The 2008 Taiwanese presidential elections are approaching, and the KMT contender is the current favorite for the post. I don't see Beijing attacking if they get their man elected. (On my blog, I harshly refer to the KMT as being capitulationists, although they might more neutrally be described as accomodationalists.)
I had a post regarding China's non-military options for bringing Taiwan further into its orbit. Take a look if you like:
http://foreignerinformosa.typepad.com/the_foreigner_in_formosa/2005/11/the_edges_of_th.html
Finally, Taiwan News had a story just a couple of days ago regarding the damage that could be done should Beijing declare a trade war against Taiwan. Keep in mind the study was done by an academic in China, so it might not be entirely unbiased.
http://www.etaiwannews.com/showPage.php?setupFile=showcontent.xml&menu_item_id=MI-1123666634&did=d_1141871900_24170_B6344308D36831C9F94553395DDAFADBE96E161C_10&area=taiwan&area_code=00000
Posted by: The Foreigner at March 11, 2006 12:32 AM
Sorry, thought I could just copy & paste those links. Here they are again:
Hope I didn't make mistakes with the HTML.
Posted by: The Foreigner at March 11, 2006 12:48 AM
Foreigner, thank you for stopping by. And thank you for all those links. btw, the way you posted them the first time was fine, as I can simply copy and paste them into a browser.
I suspect that if you surveyed American college students you'd get the same results. It's kind of the "citizen's army" mentality; "I don't anyone to force me to serve if there's no immediate national threat but I will volunter if we're attacked". To be sure in our modern age we don't have the luxury of a time-comsuming mobilization as we did in older times, but I think it exists as an ideal.
Re the "Carrier Vulnerabilities" article: he cites as his example "Millenium Challenge '02", a war game we held in the Persian Gulf. The US Navy lost because the "enemy" used terrorist tactics. He also cites Billy Mitchell sinking the Ostfriesland as an example of how stupid he says our leaders can be sometimes, but the issue with Mitchell and the battleship is a LOT more complicated than he makes out. Lastly, I don't think he has much clue as to real PLAN capabilities, or rather lack of them. If I mentioned C4RSI I wonder if he would even know what I was talking about? I am not at all saying our carriers are invulnerable, and the post above makes the clear. What I am saying is that the guy you linked to doesn't know what he is talking about, despite a few good points out our vulnerability to an organized terrorist attack.
However, your "Invasion or Blockaide" article is very interesting, and, I think, right on target. Certainly the PRC will try everything then can to get what they want without force. They will take the military route only if all else fails, and/or of the Taiwanese government provokes them through a declaration of independence or something.
I don't know a lot about the details of the economic situation to comment authoritavely on the last link (trade war), but it seems plausable that the PRC might try some economic actions as part of a diplomatic strategy.
Either way, thank you very much for stopping by leaving those links.
Posted by: Tom the Redhunter at March 11, 2006 2:33 PM
