The Redhunter

What makes this interesting is that the IAEA's (International Atomic Energey Agency) 35-member Board of Governors is going to take up Iran tomorrow at their meeting in Vienna. If they find that Iran has violated it's agreements, they will make a recommendation to the Security Council. Playing a dangerous game of brinksmanship, Iran has said that if this happens then they will start full-scale uranium enrichment.

As if they wouldn't do it anyway.

The Bottom Line

1) Unless there is a dramatic change somewhere, either in how we deal with Iran or a regime change(both unlikely), Iran will obtain nuclear weapons, probably this year. Sanctions are not going to work period.

2) Given that various leaders of Iran have stated that they will up and use these weapons against Israel, the latter has made it clear that they will not accept a nuclear Iran.

3) If it becomes known that Iran has a nuclear weapon, or is on the verge of obtaining one, Israel will present the US with an ultimatum; either you hit Iran or we will.

4) Given the uproar that would ensue after Israeli strikes, and the fact that they simply cannot do the job, the United States will have to act. This means a bombing campaign that will last at least a week or two.

We are moving towards the brink of war with Iran, and I am very pessimistic that it can be avoided. Regime change through an internal coup, while desireable and should be pursued, is a long shot. International sanctions and pressure will not change the Iranian leaders determination. Nuclear weapons in the hands of insane Iranian leaders is simply not acceptable.

We should not deceive ourselves into thinking that we can hit Iran without regional consequences, many of which will be unpleasant. If we thought the "cartoon intifada" riots were bad, get ready for worse. This is going to get ugly.