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August 2, 2006

The Contrarian Views

Two days ago I wrote that "There seems general consensus that the military campaign is not destroying Hezbollah as hoped." Yesterday's post cited several astute analysists who said that Israel was not winning it's war, and that the United States was not doing so well either in the larger war on Islamofascism.

Perhaps I spoke too soon regarding a consensus. American Thinker certainly disagrees that Israel is losing. He says that the current war most resembles the battle for Iwo Jima. The Japanese defenders thought they had constructed the perfect fort, which would surely hold off the Americans. Instead, they were slaughtered, with only 1020 of the 21,000 defenders surviving.

The Israeli strategy, he says, is more subtle than many have supposed.

It is Hezbollah that has been outsmarted here, though uninformed, mainstream reporting of the initial results obscure this fact. For in banking on a massive Israeli offensive, Hezbollah apparently posted a sizeable force in the Lebanese border towns that are being picked apart one by one by the IDF. Already there are IDF reports of as many as 230 Hezbollah terrorists killed in Maroun al-Ras and Bint Jbeil. The Bint Jbeil meat-grinder, where Hezbollah appeared determined to make an ill-advised last stand, has done its work.
The IDF and the Israeli Air Force (IAF) have destroyed an estimated 1,300 Hezbollah missiles that range from the Katyushas to Farj-3s, Farj5s, and Zelzal-2s. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has expended an estimated 2,000 missiles and has little to show for it. Israeli military officials report soldiers have found and destroyed Katyusha rocket launchers, antitank missile launchers and large caches of ammunition. Few launchers are reported available. Like the Japanese at Iwo Jima, Hezbollah has stored enormous quantities of ammunition in the Lebanese border towns, perhaps planning to wage a hit-and-run guerrilla war on Israel’s supply convoys as the IDF repeats the 1982 invasion. But Israel’s been there, done that, and she is not going to make the same mistake twice. “‘This battle against Hezbollah is going to last,’ Avi Dichter, Israel’s public security minister” informed reporters. “‘We’re not in any hurry.’”

Over whatever time remains before the conflict is forced to end, the IDF will take apart the Hezbollah terrorist-guerrillas that made the ultimate error of remaining in fixed positions. It is Hezbollah that is stoked in the passions and delusions of over-confidence. If Hezbollah takes comfort from fighting in fixed positions, they need only brush up on Napoleon, who said “the army that remains in its forts is beaten.”

Steve Schippert of ThreatsWatch believes that Hezbollah is on the ropes

...in a radio interview with John Batchelor, retired Air Force General Tom McInerney detailed a debriefing with a senior IDF official in which he detailed that Israel believes their airstrikes have eliminated 70% of the long-range Iranian ZelZal missile systems in Hizballah hands. McInerney noted that over 1000 Hizballah infrastructure targets have been struck by Israeli air power up and down the Bekaa Valley (once called the most heavily defended air corridor on the planet) and throughout Southern Lebanon, including weapons storage facilities, command and control centers, vehicle repair facilities and 18 Hizballah financial centers which serve in the place of banks.

While sustaining these enormous losses, Hizballah is having difficulty re-supplying across the Syrian border. Convoys from Syria are struck by F-16’s and drones once they are within Lebanese borders, often with the massive secondary explosions that indicate arms shipments. The Israelis believe that Bashar Assad is “directly involved” in the attempts to smuggle rockets, other arms and ammunition to Hizballah, and the release of the results of ‘defense establishment’ intelligence is Israel’s way of sending a message to the Syrian president.

Lastly, Haaretz Correspondent Yoav Stern says that "Hezbollah's reports have become less and less believable

On Monday, Al-Manar television - the central component of Hezbollah's well-oiled media empire - reported that the organization had destroyed an Israeli ship off the coast of Tyre, which had some 50 sailors aboard - a charge the IDF dismissed completely."

It's not clear what incident, if any, the report was referring to, and the Arab world has been asking questions. Al-Arabiya television asked Mahmoud Kamati, a member of the Hezbollah political bureau, about the Hezbollah claim and he repeated that an Israeli ship had been hit, but said no pictures were broadcast because visibility was poor.

Given that much of the msm seems to consider Hezbollah and Israeli statments of equal value, we need to consider that the view of the war we have been receiving is not entirely honest.

So who is right? I don't know. We hear that all Hezbollah has to do to win is survive. Since propaganda is a very important part of war, this has some validity. But Israel is fighting because most of the people in it's northern cities are living underground, and it's economy has ground to a halt in these areas. It simply cannot survive under these conditions. Simply ending the rocket attacks is a victory for Israel.

The good news is that politicians in the United States are fairly united in their support for Israel. With the exception of a few moonbats on the left, most all Democrats and Republicans are in opposition to Hezbollah and are willing to give Israel the time it needs. I can't find the link, but I recall reading that the IDF thought it needed just another 10-14 days. Let's make sure they get it.

Posted by Tom at August 2, 2006 9:43 PM

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Comments

Tom this is a wonderful post and so true. I just put up a new post you might be interested in. Anyhow, my free WordPress account came through so I have imported my blogger posts into it. Spam control is superb.

Thanks for all the support Tom. I am grateful.

http://dinapreston.wordpress.com

Talk to you soon and thanks for all the great reads!

Posted by: Dina at August 3, 2006 1:47 AM

The challenge here is similar to the WOT: this is 'asymmetrical warfare' and public opinion and media PR can count almost as much as tactic success on the battle field. (Aka we have won all our firefights in Iraq, yet the country remains on the verge of civil war, and is still unstable). There should be little doubt that Israel (or the U.S.) has the capability to defeat their military opponents through superior training, tactics, and weapons systems. Hezbollah has fired thousands of untargeted rockets, and has little to show for any military or tactical advantage for their feeble efforts. The problem, as I see is the reaction on the ‘Arab street’ to the fighting with Hezbollah. This is most widely shown in the recent pro-Hezbollah demonstrations in Iraq. With 1,000s of Shi’a marching in support of Sadr, chanting “Death to Israel,” I hardly see this as the demographic of people expected to bring stability to the Middle East, especially since they seem to have affection for Hezbollah and their Iranian backers (and fellow shi’a). Which comes back to my main point that even more important than Israel giving Hezbollah a good kick in the pants like they deserve, is to watch closely as to how the rest of the middle east views Hassan Nasrallah. In my view, this will determine if this is in fact a clash of civilizations (with the majority of the middle east supporting Nasrallah and becoming more anti-US), or if the painful path to democracy is worth the effort and will eventually bring stability to the region. If Hassan Nasrallah becomes more popular as a result of Israel’s effective attacks, I think we are seeing the beginning of some real turmoil in the Middle East. If he eventually becomes a pariah like Zarqawi (who??) in Arab opinion, Israel will have succeeded. If he becomes more popular, they may have won the battle at a greater cost in the long term war.

Posted by: jason at August 4, 2006 6:17 PM

Excellent points, jason. I think you are largely correct.

Ralph Peters spoke to this in his column yesterday:

"THANK God. Israel's fighting. Really fighting. At last. Now the crucial thing is not to stop. Hezbollah must be left in desolation, its terrorists slain and its dreams of glory smashed.

Even the finest, most-determined military efforts won't eliminate Hezbollah entirely. But uncompromising ferocity on the part of the Israeli Defense Forces can weaken, humble and humiliate the terrorist leadership."

If, like you say, Israel can humiliate Nasrallah then they will have won.

Posted by: Tom the Redhunter at August 4, 2006 9:12 PM

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