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January 21, 2007

No More Realism

Whatever foreign policy we as a nation adopt in the future, let it not be "realism".

Yes, the situation in Iraq is such that it must distress even the most die-hard Wilsonian optimist. Whatever mistakes we have made after our invasion, if Iraq comes totally unglued it will ultimately the fault of the Iraqis. If enough of them cannot or will not appreciate what we are trying to give them, in the final analysis that's not our fault. We have handed them a republic, and it is up to them to keep it.

Today, however, there seems to be a growing chorus of voices saying that we should return to a sort of "realism". Jim Baker and his Iraq Study Group are seen as wise sages counseling the naive, stupid, or evil (or sometimes all three) neo-cons of the Bush Administration.

People who call themselves liberals sneer at democracy, chorteling that all it has achieved was Hamas in control of the PA and Shiite extremists in power in Baghdad. It is assumed by many that the natural state of the Arabs is to be governed by dictators of one sort or another. Not only natural, but safer. More stable.

Who better to shred such thinking than Victor Davis Hanson:

Prior to Iraq, there was some American guilt over past realism, whether stopping before Baghdad in 1991, playing Iran off Iraq, cozying up to dictatorships, or predicating American Middle East foreign policy solely on either oil or anti-Communism. ... Arab intellectuals and much of the Western Left once decried Bakerism and called for a new muscular idealism that put us on the side of the powerless reformers and not with the entrenched authoritarians. But if we fail in Iraq, then again, fairly or not, the verdict will be far more sweeping than simply the incompetence of the Bremer proconsulship or the impotence of the Maliki government.

Indeed it will be. But even more important than that is something else:

... Democrats and liberals should likewise realize that for all their hatred of George Bush and the partisan points to be gained by coddling up to the libertarian and paleo-conservative Right, George Bush’s embrace of freedom was far closer to their own past rhetoric than almost any Republican administration in history. And such an effort to foster democracy was in the long run smart as well, since ultimately a free Iraq would be the worst nightmare of the Islamic jihadists — as we read repeatedly in the rantings of Dr. Zawahiri.

Ouch.

But it's true. George Bush is doing what liberals have always said we should do; spread democratic ideals instead of supporting dictators who would oppose the communists and/or sell us oil. The difference between them and him is that instead of giving speeches before Washington elites he put words to action.

We are in our current position precisely because of diplomats such as Brent Scowcroft and Jim Baker who value stability uber alles. Preserve the status quo at all costs. Don't rock the boat. As long as we get our oil, who are we to care if they want to live in the 9th century? Human rights? That was useful against the communists, but they're gone now.

You don't have to believe everything Natan Sharansky said in The Case for Democracy to believe that this policy was wrong. For too many years we ignored or pandered to whatever Arab or Persian dictator was in power as long as we got basing rights and a steady flow of oil. While such thinking held short-term benefits, you can only keep the lid on a pressure cooker for so long.

So we went into Iraq for a variety of reasons, WMD being the primary one but hardly the only. The resolution passed by Congress on October 11 2002 listed many reasons, one of which was:

Whereas the Iraq Liberation Act (Public Law 105-338) expressed the sense of Congress that it should be the policy of the United States to support efforts to remove from power the current Iraqi regime and promote the emergence of a democratic government to replace that regime;

Ok, so things haven't exactly worked out as planned. But all is not lost either, and readers of this blog know that I think it necessary that we give it our all to save the situation, and this means supporting the president's latest plan.

Once upon a time the left would have applauded, no, cheered, the thinking embodied in the Iraq Liberation Act. They're the ones, after all, who spent much of the Cold War denouncing the US policicy of supporting "authoritarian" regimes on the justification that they were better than "totalitarian" ones.

I understand that there's an anti-war movement. Leftist groups such as ANSWER and United for Peace and Justice will always be with us. Our media culture will create a Cincy Sheehan if none exist. What I don't understand, and what distresses me, is that so many in this country seemed to have joined with them.

In the article cited above, Hanson points out that whatever happens in Iraq, one day it will all be over. What then?

The Democrats are a strong and ever more vocal anti-war constituency. Some indeed, think Murtha or Rangel, are considered party leaders. The Republican party is flat-out in disarray, McCain and Leiberman seemingly being the sole voices of reason on the Hill.

Is it to be thought that Clinton's Kosovo adventure was the "perfect war"? Hanson again

Before Iraq, wild-eyed reformers talked of a new military paradigm of sanitized war, following from wins in Afghanistan, Bosnia, Kosovo, Panama, or Serbia. Bombing from on high with GPS ordinance and a few paratroopers or special forces were the supposed future — not old fashioned, everyday artillery, armor, and infantry.

That either/or dichotomy was, of course, absurd. But if we withdraw defeated from Iraq, like it or not, there will be the charge made that the United States should not commit sizable Army and Marine forces abroad on the ground — period, under any circumstances, at any time.

Vietnam and now Iraq will substantiate in greater detail what we tasted in Lebanon and Mogadishu — the impossibility of using large conventional forces in chaotic conflicts that will inevitably turn asymmetrical and terrorist. In that regard, an army on the shelf will fossilize, as we lose confidence that it can ever achieve anything worth its losses. Generals will promise victories in the sort of rare conventional wars they can easily win, and decline the more common messy ones they cannot.

John McCain puts some hard questions to the withdraw now crowd on his website. So far, I have not seen any serious answers. The left, the palecon right, and those simply out to save their own political skins are creating a monster, and if they succeed in their ambitions it is going to haunt us for a long time.

Posted by Tom at January 21, 2007 8:11 PM

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Comments

"We have handed them a republic, and it is up to them to keep it." - and presumably build it from the rubble?

Posted by: Steve Smith at January 24, 2007 8:09 AM

If anyone had much concern that the Baker realism would become part of our official policy, President Bush dispelled it in his Iraq speech and the State of the Union address.

And Bush turned up the heat on Iran as well without any blathering about a dialogue.

Posted by: Mike Author Profile Page at January 24, 2007 6:55 PM

"and presumably build it from the rubble?"

Have you ever heard of Germany or Japan?

Posted by: Tom the Redhunter at January 24, 2007 7:15 PM

The Allies succesfully rebuilt Germany (and I'm guessing Japan) after that war. What's our excuse for failure this time?

Posted by: Stephen Smith at January 25, 2007 8:57 AM

Liberals!!!!

Seriously, Bush and the Republican controlled Congress bungled this solely because of liberals. They are not accoutnable for the failure to plan for any possibility of an insurgency after the invasion and they are not responsible for the wasted 'reconstruction' money that vanished in Iraq. Bush appeared on the aircraft carrier with the banner "Mission Accomplished" and the only reason our victory has been ruined is because of Godless, secular-progressive liberals. If they had their way, we'd even allow lesbian couples to have babies, can you imagine? Damn them to hell, Jesus hates them all!!!

Posted by: Rush at January 25, 2007 3:14 PM

Obviously neither "Rush" nor Steven read this website much if they think I'm some unreconstructed defender of how the Bush Administration has handled the war. So I'll excuse you.

"Rush" is just a troll, so I've got no response for him.

Steven asks a good question. And yes, Steven, we rebuilt Japan, and did so without anyone else's help.

As I suspect you know, the main difference between Germany/Japan and Iraq is that we beat the living tar out of the former before we occupied their countries. The result was that the populations of each were so beat down they weren't in any state of mind to resist.

Further, once in each country we were prepared to take shoot outright anyone who resisted and ask questions later.

Neither is the case with Iraq. The initial invasion was so successful, and collapsed the regime so quickly, that it the population was virtually unscathed. Thus they almost literally woke up one day to find their government gone and nothing in it's place. al Qaeda came in, sectarian militias formed, and we didn't act strongly. Gen Sanchez took over a year to switch to a counter-insurgency strategy.... I could go on but you get the point. I hear that Thomas Ricks of the WaPo wrote a pretty good book about what went wrong called "Fiasco", but I haven't had time to read it yet.

Anyway, Steven, I'm not sure who you are or what you really meant with your "rubble" comment, but the fact is that Iraq is in a pristine state compared to Japan or Germany post WWII. Even the insurgency hasn't damaged it nearly so much (and yes I'm familiar with the damage in Fallujah etc).

So our failures there aren't the result so much of "you can't build democracy from the rubble", as clearly we did that in Germany and Japan. The reasons are complicated and as I don't have time to go into all of the details now I just hope that if you come back you'll read some of my past posts.

And if you do come back and decide to respond to me I'll be disappointed if I don't get something that's nice and intelligent . I've got another liberal commenter called "jason" who often leaves long comments here, and he's learned that if he's nice to me I'm nice to him.

Specifically I'd like to hear you discuss the post itself, specifically what you think about the foreign policy generally called "Realism".

Posted by: Tom the Redhunter at January 25, 2007 10:26 PM

Regarding Iraq's infrastructure, I regularly hear news that it's in a terrible state (high unemployment, power and water problems) which is a vicious circle with the security problem; until one is sorted, the other can't be sorted, and vice versa. We did succesfully rebuild Germany in Japan, so it's evidence of how badly the invasion was carried out that we're having these problems.

I'm going to have to disappoint you with my lack of words regarding 'realism'; I'm having trouble getting handle on what it actually is, so I don't feel qualified to comment.

PS - Kudos for allowing and not moderating comments.

Posted by: Stephen Smith at January 26, 2007 8:54 AM

I have two rules with regard to comments. One, no foul language. Two, make your comments relevant to the post. Othewise you're pretty much free to do what you want.

As far as Realism goes, Wikipedia has a decent primer. Take a look and let me know what you think.

Posted by: Tom the Redhunter at January 27, 2007 7:07 PM

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