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January 6, 2007
The Hojjatieh and "Professor Crocodile"
Two days ago Michael Ledeen (hat tip ThreatsWatch reported that Grand Ayatollah Ali Khameini, the Supreme Leader of Iran , was dead. Yesterday Iran denied it. I've searched a few major news outlets and can find nothing on it.
Whatever the truth, I've seen a few reports that he has been ill for some time, so it is likely that he will not be with us much longer. Even is he is alive but ill, his power is obviouly diminished and jockeying for power has undoubtably shifted into high gear.
The good news is that the Hojjatieh were apparently not able to extend their influence in the elections to the Council of Experts (who elect the Supreme Leader) last Dec 15. Instead, "moderates" close to Ayatollah Rafsanjani won most of the seats. This would seem to diminish the power and/or influence of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Then again, trying to decipher the workings of the Iranian government is difficult even on a good day, because so much of what happens appears to be scripted.
By way of quick background, Khameini's bio on Wikipedia makes for useful reading. He was born in 1939, and was President of Iran from 1981 to 1989. He was elected by the Assembly of Experts to be the country's new Supreme Leader on June 4, 1989, shortly after the Ayatollah Khomeini died. The Assembly of Experts (sometimes incorrectly called the "council of mullahs") is the true power in Iran, and it's Supreme Leader has much more power than does the president.
The question that emerges now, or will very shortly, is who will succeed Ayatollah Khameini as Supreme Leader? Will the Hojjatieh gain or lose influence?
Professor Crocodile
The ThreatsWatch post linked to above mentions a certain Ayatollah Yazdi. I first read about him a few weeks ago on in the comments section of this ThreatsWatch post, when post author Steve Schippert mentioned his name. I decided to do some poking around and here's what I've found out so far.
His Wikipedia entry tells us that he is "President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's spiritual advisor, and a member of Iran's Assembly of Experts." He is considered a fundamentalist in a nation where we in the West would consider just about all clerics fundamentalists. He is considered the leader of these fundamentalists, and is "an outspoken, and sometimes violent critic of the reform movement." Of course, he supports martyrdom operations and suicide bombers against Israel.
Although he is rumored to be the leader of the Hojjatieh, he has denied any link to them. Even if he was tied to them he would likely deny it, since the Ayatollah Khomeini banned the group in 1983. Given the opaque nature of what we know about Iranian politics, anything could be true.
In November 2005 an article about Yazdi appeared in The Telegraph which described him as "a hardliner to terrify hardliners". In Iran he is known by some as "Professor Crocodile", a nickname bestowed on him by a political cartoonist he later had thrown in jail.
According to the Telegraph article, Yazdi's influence waxed when he issued a fatwa in support of Ahmadinejad's presidential bid in 2005. Given the last election, however, one suspects his influence has since waxed. All will become clear when the next Supreme Leader is chosen.
A story by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty also discusses the possible reimergence of the Hojjatieh and accusations that Yazdi is a member or even the leader.
Further, a long article on a website of The Baha'i International Community (Wikipedia entry on the Baha'i Faith here) has much information on the Hojjatieh, including much I have not yet had time to read.
Yazdi's Crystals
As if the practices and beliefs of the Hojjatieh as I described them in my initial post on the subject weren't weird and worrysome enough, we have stories about the Ayatollah Yazdi and his magic crystals to add to the mix.
From what I can tell, the Hojjatieh are in the "mystical" tradition of Islam (many religions, including Christianity, have their mystical sects, which I believe are usually regarded as heretical). Likewise, I believe that the Hojjatieh are regarded as at least somewhat heretical by most Shi'ites, especially given that Ayatollah Khomeini did ban the organization.
ThreatsWatch contributor Steve Schippert elaborates about the Ayatollah Yazdi and the Jojjatieh in this comment he posted on his site in response to a question of mine about Yazdi:
One thing to also keep in mind is that the Hojjatieh sect is extremely apocolyptic and bizarre in practice. Many respected writers - including Bernard Lewis and Amir Taheri - shy away from writing publicly the details of their practices. A well-informed friend in a position to know has said several times that they fear that their practices are so mystic and strange (“truly what you would expect in a comic book” - including the use of crystals, belief in meta-physical powers, etc.) that readers would question the authors’ credibility rather than the frightening nature of the Hojjatieh practices themselves.Yazdi is paranoid and is said to sleep just a couple of hours each day. Again, according to a very well informed friend, Yazdi has good reason to be paranoid. The position he holds within the sect he gained - it was said - by killing his predecessor—-trying to remove his “third eye”. It’s barely believable. Surely some reading this here may think me off my rocker for even echoing what was told to me by an extremely reasonable, objective source who is most definitely not the sensational type. If his followers truly believe he caused a foe to spontaneously combust from afar…well, you’re beginning to see why so many credible writers run away from such stories, though they believe them true. Reasonable westerneres will dismiss such things, believing it truly impossible for a group of people to truly and faithfully subscribe to such things and beliefs.
This is what Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi and his young pupil Ahmadinejad bring to the leadership table of the world’s foremost state sponsor of international terrorism.
If, in an outside chance, Yazdi’s followers win enough seats in the Assembly of Experts from Friday’s elections (we’ll know Sunday, I believe), they will certainly seek to remove Supreme Leader Khameini - or if his health is as bad as reported, wait until Khameini dies - and replace him with Yazdi himself.
This is unlikely, as Khameini still holds the electoral trump: Power.
However, if the US sees Yazdi assume Khameini’s position, the cause for American military action will have exponentially increased.
The Hojjatieh - and Yazdi in particular - are that scary.
Note: Schippert later clarified that "the ‘credible writers’ of whom I speak do not believe that Yazdi caused a man to spontaneously combust. They believe that the Hojjatieh followers subscribe to this thinking, reasoned by the group to be a part of the mystic powers he is touted as having."
Schippert and many others believe that Ahmadinejad is a Hojjatieh true believer. Yazdi may be as well, and if Khameini is dead or dies soon, the balance of power could shift in their favor.
Of course I've no idea how much if any of this President Bush and his advisors are aware of, but the recent appointment of Admial William Fallon to replace General John Abizaid at CENTCOM shows that they are taking the threat from Iran very seriously.
I rather doubt that military action is on the table in the near term, but what if Yazdi or Ahmadinejad suddenly announced that the Mahdi ("12th Imam") had in fact returned?
It is easy to dismiss all this talk of the Hojjatieh and Mahdi as comic-book stuff. Certainly it is strange beyond our imaging. The fact, however, is that in order to defend ourselves against our enemies we have to understand them. And from what I'm beginning to understand what's going on in Iran is as scary as it gets.
Posted by Tom at January 6, 2007 9:00 PM
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