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February 21, 2007
Is it a Temporary Turnaround?
For what it's worth, there was this post on The Corner yesterday:
“A Fundamental Turning Point In The War” [Rich Lowry]That's how Richard Engel characterized the surge last night on “Hardball.” Here's his take:
Chris, right now there is a fundamental turning point in the war. For the first three years, roughly, U.S. troops were fighting Sunnis and were fighting mostly a Sunni insurgency. Then after that Samarra attack last February, almost one year ago to the day, the Shiite militia groups which had been gaining strength on the ground could not take it any more. They have been absorbing so much abuse that after that attack they decided that was it and they started attacking everyone.The Shiite militias started attacking Sunnis, they started attacking U.S. forces, also any local shop owners. Anyone who wasn‘t agreeing with them.
Then—now there is a new fundamental shift. The Shiite militias have decided to go to ground. Have stopped fighting for the time being. They are going try to and wait it out. And it is the Sunnis who are now in the forefront and are trying to attack both Americans and to attack the Shiites to get them back into the fight so they don‘t just sit back and consolidate their power.
Now, there are a couple of things to say about this. 1) It shows how fluid and dynamic the war is. An influx of a couple of thousand U.S. troops pursuing a different strategy has already caused a change in the nature of the war. 2) Doesn't this mean the Democrats have to rest the “caught in a civil war” soundbite? We are basically back to fighting the Sunni insurgency again, a much less complex, but still extremely difficult proposition. 3) The militias are pursuing a sensible strategy to duck and cover and come back when we leave. But, if we can get the security situation under control, the political environment might be very different when the militias try to come back. The government might have more legitimacy, and the military forces more capability, making it harder for the militias to occupy the space they had before.But, of course, all this depends on us actually getting the security situation under control.
Ditto that. It also depends on the political situation here at home. Gen Petraeus only has a short time to show concrete results or the Democrats, followed by some Republicans, are going to pull the plug on the whole thing.
Posted by Tom at February 21, 2007 8:25 PM
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