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February 15, 2007

The Mahdi Army Crumbling?

We've all seen the stories that firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has fled to Iran in the face of US and Iraqi Army attacks on his Mahdi Army. Wherever he is, he's certainly in hiding. This leaves his forces without a leader. The word from StrategyPage is that they're melting into the population, trying to avoid the onslaught. Further, it's not just al-Sadr that has fled, many of his lieutenants have also.

As Rich Lowry pointed out today over at The Corner, this puts the lie to the notion that there's no military solution for Iraq. Those who say that only a political solution will work have it exactly backwards; the security situation must be stabilized before any political solution is possible.

Ralph Peters explains how "Mookie's" cowardace will cost him politically because his soldiers will not want to fight for a leader who cannot stand with them.

It's going to be hard for him to maintain his image as an Iraqi nationalist after running to mommy back in Qom or Tehran. To be fair, the Mookster hasn't always done Iran's bidding in the past - but now he's going to owe the Shiraz Sopranos.

Oh, and that trusted source tells me that Mookie's not the only bad actor who's fled the country - he's the marquee act, but the supporting cast took off, too. Leaving the chumps with the push-brooms to deal with the mess.
...

What's changed? Plenty. Mookie's probably sensed that President Bush is cornered politically and, with little left to lose, isn't going to settle for more half-measures. The troop surge that Sen. Barack "I'm entitled!" Obama and so many others in Congress deride got his attention, too: Sadr City's no longer a safety zone.

And after being beaten sufficiently about the head and shoulders, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has decided that maybe Mookie's not the man of the future. Najaf and Karbala just don't feel safe anymore.

Over the past several weeks, we've taken out or busted nearly a dozen high-ranking Sadrists, the boys who decide where the bombs will go off and who choose the death-squad targets. It's hard to feel warm and fuzzy when your deputies keep going down.

And there's a new kid in town: Gen. Dave Petraeus is a different kind of adversary and Muqtada, who made his bones judging the limitations of his opponents, recognizes that the rules just changed. Petraeus has a tactile sense of Iraq that his predecessors in Baghdad simply lacked. And King David's out to win.

Read the whole thing, but I think Peters is on to something.

Last May I wrote a post called Now Entering Phase IV of the War in Iraq, in which I predicted that our next step would be to take down the militias. In retrospect I obviously got the timing of this next step completely wrong. Rather than make the bold move to destroy the Mahdi Army, Badr Brigade(or "Badr Organization"), and the other militias, we dithered and let the sectarian violence escallate.

Fortunately it now looks like with implimentation of the Keane-Kagan plan we are doing what we ought to have done a long time ago.

Peters leaves us with this analysis, and warning

What Mookie's hasty hejira to Hamadan tells us is that our fanatical enemies, Sunni and Shia, face a leadership crisis. The dons of terror are afraid.

If we can't take advantage of that, shame on us.

President Bush better be serious about seeing this through to the end. I believe that Petraeus is the right man and if given the tools and troops stands a good chance of getting the job done.

Unfortunately, half the battle has to be waged here at home, with that idiot John Murtha promising to introduce legislation that would prevent Petraeus from receiving those troops that he needs. I doubt Murtha's bill will pass, but it's got to please al-Sadr.

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New Plan for Iraq VI
New Play for Iraq V
New Plan for Iraq IV
New Plan for Iraq III
New Plan for Iraq II
Here's the New Plan for Iraq

Posted by Tom at February 15, 2007 8:59 PM

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Comments

A comentor at LGF pointed out that al Sadir has pulled a "Sir Robin" ( http://tinyurl.com/33p5gk ).

WARNING: Uncontrolable laughing may occur from watching the above video.

Posted by: Jason at February 15, 2007 11:59 PM

Not to worry, jason, I got the Monty Python reference! I'm a huge fan of their work. Thanks for the morning humor.

Bty, you may be interested to know that one of my favorite movies is their "Life of Brian", and I consider myself an evangelical Christian. If you can't laugh at yourself, what good are you? It's one of the things that separates us from the Islamists.

Posted by: Tom the Redhunter at February 16, 2007 8:38 AM

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