The Redhunter

Indeed, as I pointed out yesterday in my first post on this crisis, we have two carrier battle groups in the Gulf, one based around the USS John C Stennis and the other around the USS Dwight D Eisenhower. The French also have one of their carriers, the Clemenceau, in the Gulf. Loyola adds that as we speak our two carriers are engaged in "live-fire" exercises, which were planned many weeks ago but the execution of which was perhaps speeded up.

But lets move on to the second reason Iran seized the hostages

(Iran) decided to announce on Sunday that they would stop making certain disclosures about their nuclear program to the International Atomic Energy Agency. This could have triggered a military response from the United States immediately. Why? Because Iran is due to launch a large-scale centrifuge-enrichment cascade at Natantz in a matter of weeks or months. This means that Iran will finally be able to start enriching enough weapons-grade uranium to manufacture warheads on a time-scale measured in months. Because of technical hurdles, they are probably still years away from producing a viable device. But they have now reached a point where they cannot keep advancing towards the production of nuclear warheads unless they stop cooperating with the IAEA and pull a veil of secrecy over their program.

In other words, they figure that if they have hostages we won't attack. It's kind of like the bank robber holded up with the teller. He figures that as long as he has a gun to her head the cops won't come storming in.

Iran also knows that in addition to the Stennis and Eisenhower battle groups, we can add the USS Ronald Reagan and USS Chester Nimitz in short order as well. Add that to the fact that our B-1bs and B-2s aren't doing much now and you've got a regime that has reason to be worried.

W

ith four aircraft-carrier battle groups, several hundred carrier-based strike fighters, and 20 strategic bombers just minutes or hours from Iran, the United States will have assembled everything it needs to cripple the regime and wipe out the most important elements of its nuclear program. Iran needs to know that this is the only alternative to complying with the Security Council resolutions. Otherwise, in a few years, Iran could be holding all of us hostage.

So Where Are the Brits?

The only British ship in the Gulf right now is the frigate HMS Cornwall, the ship the seized sailors and marines served on. To the best of my knowledge, no other ships, and certainly no Falklands-style fleet, has been ordered to set sail.

In the post on The Corner Loyola sums up the current British attitude

While Iran’s humiliating abuse of the sailors provoked outrage in Britain, the outrage has manifested mostly in a despondent impotence. On the British right, folks lament that years of Labour government have left the Royal Navy in the most decrepit and weakened state of its history; whereas from the left the government is criticized for wasting British power on a needless war in Iraq. Opinion seems unanimous that Britain is helpless.

I can just hear all of the heros of British history turning over in their graves. I've actually been to St Pauls Cathedral in London and saw where Lord Nelson and the Duke of Wellington are interned and I can imagine the stones are quaking right about now.

As for the Prime Minister

Tony Blair appears to be in a daze. Confronted with Iran’s abuse of his countrymen in an act of war, Blair threatens Iran with—of all things—isolation! Isolation—the very word occasions comic relief in Tehran. The latest reports suggest the hostages will be traded for a guarantee that British forces will not violate Iranian territory—at the precise moment we need to start doing precisely that in order to enforce Iran’s nuclear obligations. And London just might agree. How sad and humiliating for the British.

And indeed the stories today are about a "diplomatic solution" that may well entail just such a promise. Here are key excerpts of one from the Jerusalem Post

Iran's chief international negotiator said Monday that Iran wants to resolve the crisis over 15 captured British sailors through diplomacy, and that there was no need to put the crew on trial.

Ali Larijani said Iran's priority "is to solve the problem through proper diplomatic channels."
...

n Britain's part, "a guarantee must be given that such violation will not be repeated," he added.

Get it? The diplomats work out some weasel words whereby the British say in effect "we don't think we violated Iran's sovereignty but if we did we're sorry and won't do it again". Immediately upon the release of the hostages Iran will crow that this language means that the UK agreed to never attack it. True or not, it will have great propaganda value.

The purpose, then, is to remove the UK as a threat to their nuclear program. If the U.S. has to hit them, we may be alone.