The Redhunter

Friday's report was titled "Arrowhead Ripper: Surrender or Die". Money quote

I am with 3-2 Stryker Brigade Combat Team. I’ve run a few missions with them in Baghdad, and they have fought all over Iraq. This Brigade has much recent combat experience, and is expertly commanded. A person does not need to even meet the commanders (though I do each day) to know they are running a tight ship. The professionalism of 3-2 is particularly high, and they are very competent fighters who are maximizing their assets, including the incredible Stryker vehicles. ...

Our guys are winning. Al Qaeda is about to be strangled and pummeled to death in this town (Baqubah), but the local Iraqi leadership is severely wanting. This was most obviously noted in one area in particular, where there were some slight indicators of a possible humanitarian need. “Crisis” certainly is not the correct word, but there are displaced persons numbering at least in the hundreds. LTC Fred Johnson actually took me out there. (The access even to “bad” news is amazing with this Brigade.)

Next we go go Ralph Peters, who's editorial in the New York Post last Thursday builds on what Michael Yon saw in Baqabah.

HALLELUJAH! For the first time since Baghdad fell, our military in Iraq has a comprehensive, integrated plan to defeat our enemies.

Until now, our efforts have always been piecemeal, stop-start affairs. Even our success in the Second Battle of Fallujah in 2004 went unexploited.

The 10,000-man operation reported in the Baquba area is only one part of a broader effort. In the words of a well-placed officer in Baghdad, "Operations like that are going on around Fallujah, Salman Pak, in Eastern Anbar, the belts around Baghdad, in Arab Jabour, outside of Taji and throughout the Diyala River Valley."

This widespread offensive against al Qaeda in Iraq and other terrorists is part of a carefully developed, phased plan. The first step as the troop surge proceeded was to establish livable conditions in key neighborhoods of the capital.

That step was vital, but insufficient in itself. Terrorists fled, but they didn't disappear. They just sought refuge elsewhere. And while neighborhood pacification involved aggressive tactical actions, it ultimately put our forces in a defensive posture.

And you can't win solely by playing defense, either in the NFL or in war.

Gen. David Petraeus understood that. He's done things methodically, operating from a coherent design - not just reacting as was our practice in the past, but imposing our will on the enemy. After regaining lost ground in Baghdad and exploiting Sunni Arab disillusionment with al Qaeda in Anbar Province, our military took the offensive. We pushed the enemy off "our" turf. Now we're going after "their" turf.

This balance between defensive and offensive operations, integrated across central Iraq, is the first time we've seen a classic approach to military operations in post-Saddam Iraq. Amazing, but true.

Things have changed. And terrorists, not just Iraqi civilians, are dying.

The best thing President Bush did was replace Generals Abazaid and Casey with Admiral Fallon and General Petraeus. He should have done this much earlier, but hindsight is always 20/20.

Bill Roggio is in Iraq and attended a briefing by Lt Gen Ray Odierno on the status of Operation Phanton Thunder, the name of the master operation. Arrowhead Ripper is a sub-operation, part of Phanton Thunder. The other two are Operations Marne Torch and Commando Eagle.

Friday's report is Roggio's latest, and he warns us that

The U.S. military commanders continue to state the operations will be ongoing through the end of the summer. The escape of Al Qaeda leaders and operatives from Baqubah and the southern belts will no doubt be touted as a failure in the plan, but this view demonstrates a lack of understanding of the fundamentals of warfare and the purpose of the operation.

First, no cordon is perfect, and the enemy has the ability to read the signs and act accordingly. It has been clear for months Baqubah would become a target of Coalition forces, and al Qaeda has its own sophisticated intelligence network that no doubt detected Coalition and Iraqi movements.

Second, the purpose of the Baghdad Security Plan and Operation Phantom Thunder is to deny al Qaeda Baghdad and the Belts, and to kill as many operatives and leaders as possible in the process. When al Qaeda attempts to regroup, it will be in the hinterlands, and in some cases, in regions less hospitable to its actions.

In September Petraeus comes to Washington to brief the President and Congress. He's fully aware of the stakes, and is making sure that we're giving it our all.

If you need a source from a traditional media outlet I can think of none better than the New York Times. An article on Monday compared past efforts to the game of "whack a mole"

Taking the fight to insurgents from Al Qaeda did not so much destroy them in Anbar Province as dislodge them, prompting the fighters to build up their strength elsewhere, including Baquba, the capital of Diyala Province.

So the planners of this latest operation are attempting to plug the holes that have allowed the insurgents to escape in the past. The goal is not merely to reclaim western Baquba from insurgent control, but to capture or kill the estimated 300 fighters to 500 fighters who are believed to be based in that part of the city.

Accurate, I think.

While our forces are doing their, job, another question lingering in the background is whether the Iraqis will do theirs. We can win but can't stay forever, or even much longer. Difficult as it is to form a government from scratch, let alone one in the middle of the war, that's just what the Iraqis are going to have to do.

Unfortunately, Amir Taheri reports that it isn't going so well.

Six months ago, the U.S.- led Coalition force in Iraq appeared to be largely in self-defense mode, allowing terrorists and insurgents much latitude in parts of Baghdad and the troubled provinces of Anbar and Diyala. At the same time, the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki appeared to be engaged in a broad political offensive.

Today we have what looks like a reversal of the two situations - with dynamism in the military field but lethargy in the political.

Oddly, the Iraqi military is making gains, he says. It is bigger, better armed, and better trained than ever. They're doing their job, sort of, anyway. The problems are at the top

...the political situation has deteriorated. The Ma liki government may well be on life support. At least eight Cabinet posts are effectively vacant while two key partners in the pro-government bloc, the Fadila (Virtue) Party and Muqtada al-Sadr's group, have walked out. Another key group within the coalition, led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, has effectively switched to the opposition and is emerging as Maliki's most outspoken critic.

hus, the Maliki government now lacks an effective majority in the National Assembly (parliament) and theoretically could be brought down with a no-confidence motion any day.

Worse still, the Shiite alliance, which provided the core element of political stability, has ceased to exist. Even Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the primus inter pares of Shiite clerics, no longer enjoys the unifying clout he did a year or so ago.

That's not good.

So there's the good news and bad news. As with all wars, it's as much about politics as bombs and bullets. Abraham Lincoln would understand.