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August 11, 2007
Book Review - Showdown: Why China Wants War with the United States
Just about anywhere you look in the United States today, and the debate is over how much of a threat radical Islam is to us. Some say a lot, some only a little, but it's certainly the subject of much discussion. This is right and good, for certainly only those farthest to each end of the spectrum would argue that radical Islam isn't a threat at all.
China is something of a different story. People are starting to become aware that all is not well in the People's Republic, and that describing them simply as a "competitor" is insufficient. Much of the discussion revolves around predatory trade practices, and recently shoddy quality that has and can have fatal consequences for us and our pets for consumers of Chinese products.
Human rights is another issue of concern. The Falun Gong movement has made us aware that the Chinese authorities see any expression of religion as a threat. Even as the memory of the massacre of several hundred people in Tiananmen Square fades, issues such as brutal enforcement of China's "one child" policy, and environmental concerns and displacement of thousands of people stemming from projects like the Three Gorges Dam.
Otherwise, when we think of a military threat from China, most of us think of a war over Taiwan. That has certainly been the subject of most of my posts on the People's Republic.
Jed Babbin and Edward Timperlake do us a favor in Showdown: Why China Wants War with the United States, by showing us that the threat from China goes well beyond Taiwan.
The book is divided into three sections: The first is a Tom Clancy-style series of short chapters detailing several scenarios involving war between the United States, China, and other countries. In the second - very short - section, the authors recommend actions we should take to deter China. The third is the appendix, in which the major document is the 2005 report to Congress on the military power of the PRC by the Department of Defense.
The best is undoubtably the first section. The fictionalized wars take place between 2008 and 2012. Three things make them valuable: One, most of the scenarios are ones that many or most of us I think have not considered. Two, they bring politics into the decision-process in a way that is realistic, and in any real-world situation cannot be avoided. One valid cricitism of Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising was that once the politicians had decided on war they largely disappeared from view. Third, the authors write each so that they are less of a military techothriller and more of a geopolitical warning; there's less bombs and bullets, and more strategizing by each side. Much of the action takes place "off camera".
No US president is ever named, but it is obvious in some of the ones occuring after the 2008 election that she is Hillary Clinton. In some she performs reasonably well as commander-in-chief, much less so in others. The importance of presidential decision-making is driven home.
The scenarios are as follows
* The War of National Unity - a fight over Taiwan
* The Second Korean War - The DPRK decides it is time to impose it's will on Seoul. Everyone gets dragged into the fight
* The First Oil War - The death of Fidel Castro prompts Hugo Chavez to invervene in Cuba. The Chinese support him in his power play. The United States does not sit idly by.
* The Sino-Japanese War - Beijing decides to take the oil and gas fields near the Japanese owned Senkaku Islands.
* World War Oil - Things really get ugly in the Middle East. Driven by an insatiable appetite for oil, on which all of our economies depend, everyone intervenes.
* The Assassin's Mace War - Cyberwar gets hot. Real hot.
Unfortunately despite all this, the authors don't really make their case; if you're looking for a tightly reasoned book with lots of documentation on Chinese intentions you'll have to look elsewhere. I picked the book up at CPAC 2007 in the hopes of getting Babbin's autograph, but then I missed his book signing.
My own theory, based mainly on some Naval War College studies, is that China will step up it's efforts to integrate Taiwan shortly after the 2008 Olympics, which are to be held in Bejing. They'll only resort to war as a last resort, or if the government in Taipei does something stupid like declares independence.
But as the authors stress, that's only one scenario in which we might end up having to fight China. Beijing has been all-too-friendly with our enemies around the world, from Iran to Venezuela. We need to take notice, and prepare accordingly.
Posted by Tom at August 11, 2007 9:17 PM
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