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October 1, 2007
Chinese Threat Update - The Window of Vulnerability
This story in today's Washington Times says it all; we've been caught flat-footed
While the United States has been tied up in Iraq, China has been modernizing its military and its air defenses are now nearly impenetrable to all but the newest American fighters, the senior U.S. military official in Japan said.
Lt. Gen. Bruce Wright, commander of the roughly 50,000 U.S. forces in Japan, Washington"s biggest ally in Asia, said in an interview last week that the Iraq war is reducing the availability of U.S. troops and equipment to meet other contingencies.It"s also eating funds that could go toward replacing or upgrading planes that are being pushed to their operational limits, he said.
China, meanwhile, is rapidly filling the skies with newer, Russian-made Sukhoi Su-27 "Flankers" and Su-30s, along with the domestically built J-10, a state-of-the-art fighter that Beijing just rolled out in January.
The proper response is to spend more money on the US military, not to pull out of Iraq. I've gone over a million times why we we need to stay in Iraq.
The bottom line to this article is that until new systems come on line we face a window of vulnerability. Consider:
Right now the most advanced aircraft on our carriers is the F-18 Super Hornet, E and F versions. A larger varient of the F-18 Hornet, it fills the role that the cancelled A-12 was supposed to fill.
To replace the ageing F-18s we're developing the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, but it won't go into widespread production for a few years. The F-35 will once again give our carriers the punch they need, but until then we're vulnerable.
On the Air Force side, our F-15s and F-16s are getting old. The F-15 first flew in 1972, and the F-16 in 1976, and the F-18 in 1978. Yes they've been upgraded, but you can only do so much with an old airframe. The F-22 Raptor is superb, but we've only got a few. As the article above indicated, it's about the only fighter in our inventory which can reliably penetrate Chinese defenses.
Our submarine force is effective, but also showing it's age. It is mostly composed of Los Angeles-class boats, the first one of which was launched in 1976. We built 3 super-advanced Seawolf-class boats, but canceled the design as too expensive. The new Virginia-class boats will beat anything anyone else can put in the water, but we've only got 3 built so far, and authorization is for only 2 per year.
"War with China: 2008 - 2010?"
In April 2005 I wrote a lengthy post called "War with China: 2008 - 2010?" I based my estimate on two Naval War College papers which talked about a "window of vulnerability" that we face before these new weapon systems come on line.
Be aware that nothing is guaranteed, and Democrats and weak Republicans in Congress can cut funding for any of the above. A President Hillary would certainly find cutting the military attractive to fund her massive health care programs.
War with China is certainly not inevitable. But the best way to ensure it doesn't happen is for us to have overwhelming strength so that they do not become tempted to strike.
Posted by Tom at October 1, 2007 9:51 PM
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Comments
Hi there, sweetie. How are you? Great post. While the congress sleeps...
Posted by: Rosemary 
at October 1, 2007 10:42 PM
Thank you for the additional link. I'll have to check it out. I think I have a pinched nerve or something, because my left wrist won't work. grr! (lol) Thank you for stopping over. ;)
Posted by: Rosemary at October 2, 2007 9:30 PM
When the Chinese forced down our plane in early 2001 I was worried that it portended a dangerous period of confrontation.
Most of that has been pushed behind the curtain by September 11th and Iraq, but the strategic competition continues.
Unlikely China will do anything to provoke a military confrontation before the Beijing Olympics. After that is anyone's guess.
We are sort of taking a gamble with the timeline before new weapons systems come on line and I wonder if we are buying sufficient numbers, particularly in aircraft.
And certainly, if Hillary become President she and Congressional Dems will likely cut missile defense just as the technology is ready to deploy.
Posted by: Mike's America at October 3, 2007 10:59 PM
Why ever do you think that China wishes a military confrontation w/ the United States?
Just out of curiousity, not that withdrawing from Iraq is feasible, but how do you propose to pay for additional weapons systems; and the war in Iraq; and evry program of every type the government is running? The Congess is incapable of cutting spending as is the White House. Shall merely issue additional government bonds for the Chinese to purchase?
Posted by: Anonymous at October 7, 2007 3:24 PM
Thank you for visiting, "Anonymous". At no point did I say that I think that China wants a military confrontation with the United States.
What I think is that China would prefer to achieve their goals peacefully, but will not hesitate to use force if they cannot. That's a lot different than saying that they want a confronation.
Here, in a nutshell, is what China wants:
1) Reacquision of Taiway/ROC
2) Hegemony in the southwestern Pacific
3) Assurance of access to Petroleum supplies
As to the details of each, go to the sidebar and under "Categories" select "China/Taiwan". I've written quite a bit about all this.
As far as the money goes, you are right, current spending on domestic programs restricts what we can spend on our military. I've taken the Republicans in Congress as well as the President to task on this on many occasions. As such, I don't have a short answer for you.
(P.S. don't take this as an admonishment; I don't expect you to read all of my past posts before you comment.)
Posted by: Tom the Redhunter at October 7, 2007 8:24 PM
Sorry. The "anonymous" part of the comment was inadvertant. I tend to hitchhike from reb the SH's site.
I agree w/ 1,2,&,3, perhaps not in that order so far as immediacy is concerned. Taiwan can and will wait as the Chinese think in terms of generations.
I have some personal, but much more vicarious experience w/ China. I am married to a Sinologist who is fluent in Mandarin and several dialects and spends several months a year in China. She is currently teaching Chinese in a local school district and at a local University. My oldest is currently teaching English to kindergratners in Beijing.
Certainly China, in many ways, poses the geatest challenge to the United States in the coming generation. Whereas I do not suggest the Chinese can be manipulated, whenever we can identify a situation in which our interests coincide w/ China's, there is a prospect for success. Progress w/ N. Korea's nuclear ambitions is one such area as the Chinese wish to avoid a situation in which tens of thousands of N. Korean refugees begin streaming across the Yalu River joing w/ the ethnic Koreans already living there to estabilize that part of China.
On the other side of the coin is China's refusal to bring any pressure to bear on the Sudanese government.
Regards.
Posted by: The Loop Garoo Kid at October 9, 2007 1:26 PM
