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October 3, 2007
Rudy Can't Win
Events this past week have convinced me that Rudy Guiliani cannot win the White House, and I am not talking about his position on the social issues or gun control.
I'm talking about his personal life.
As I think we all know, two weeks ago Rudy Guiliani answered a call on his cell phone during a speech to the NRA. The call was brief, he told his wife that he was speaking with members of the NRA and had to go. "I love you" he said and ended the call.
When I heard about this I didn't know what to make. Maybe it was some kind of planned stunt to make him look like a family guy or something, someone who loves his wife and is not afraid to say so in front of an audience.
Then I read John Fund in the OpinionJournal that this happens all the time. He has a history of taking calls from his wife while in meetings, giving speeches, at all sorts of public appearances. Aides have warned him that no matter what excuse he gives it looks bad and to stop it, but he won't. He's even taken calls during meetings with important GOP donors, who have not been shy about expressing their annoyance.
The problem seems to be with his wife, Judith Giuliani. Lisa Schiffren writes on The Corner that "She is vulgar, uneducated, grasping and insecure — and has failed to keep those attributes hidden. She offends major donors right and left by being rude — especially to their wives, especially the attractive wives." Ouch.
This is weird, but not insurmountably so. That problem is that Rudy's personal history is a class-A disaster. He is not on speaking terms with any of his children. Not only is he on his third marriage, but he apparently began "dating" wives two and three before the official divorce from one and two.
Couple all this with Rudy's own penchant "for making fun of constituents who called him with what he thought were petty problems." (John Fund) and I do not see how he can win the White House.
All this might be forgivable for a Democrat. They are, after all, the party of Bill Clinton and Ted Kennedy, and apparently proud of it. But Republicans are the home of social conservatives, who will forgive one or maybe two things if the person in question is repentant, but not this many things.
Evangelicals have made it clear that they will desert Rudy for his position on social issues alone. All these things about Rudy and people who otherwise wouldn't vote for Hillary will give her a second look, and here's why:
Hillary Clinton will most likely be the Democrat nominee. Sure, Obama might pull a surprise win in a primary and upset things, but Hillary will not implode as Howard Dean did. In all probability she will be their candidate.
She has come this far without the anti-war left. This is important because Democrat candidates typically run left during the primaries, then tack right for the general (GOP candidates doing the mirror opposite). Being this far right (for a Democrat) at this point leaves her plenty of room to move even farther right during the general. This means that she can undercut Rudy on his one real strength; national security.
Couple this with Rudy's problems, and he's got an uphill battle as the GOP candidate.
Dennis Miller says that if it's Rudy vs Hillary it will be a battle of the negatives; who can lose the fewest votes from their party. This sounds pretty accurate to me. A Rudy vs Hillary contest might mean two serious third party candidates, something unprecedented in modern American history.
From where I sit, Rudy will lose far more votes on the right than Hillary will on the left. If it's Rudy vs Hillary, Hillary wins.
Posted by Tom at October 3, 2007 8:08 PM
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Comments
Rudy was here in SC in July and I went to meet him. He didn't take a phone call from Judith, probably because she was there with him. He seemed fine to me, but then, I didn't meet her and barely had time to yell a question about Iran at Rudy.
The phone call thing is weird for sure. Rudy must know it's not very presidential. And of course Judith must know his schedule for big events.
If the couple thinks it's cute, they are wrong.
Though, I'm not sure it means Rudy won't win in a matchup with Hillary.
All our GOP candidates have defects. Everyone is looking for another Reagan. But then, people thought Reagan was too old in 1980.
Posted by: Mike's America at October 3, 2007 10:54 PM
