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December 10, 2007
The NIE causes an outbreak of BDS
This letter to the editor, which appeared in Sunday's Washington Times, is typical, I think, of what many on the left have been saying after last week's release of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE 20071203) on Iran
Not quite two months ago, President Bush said, "If Iran had a nuclear weapon, it'd be a dangerous threat to world peace. So, I told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested" in ensuring Iran not gain the capacity to develop such weapons.However, in the past few days it has come out that all 16 of our intelligence agencies have determined that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons ("Estimate of Iran's nukes reversed," Page 1, Tuesday). Now we find out that Mr. Bush was told by these agencies before he made his bizarre reference to World War III that Iran wasn't making weapons. Mr. Bush lied — again.
We all know that Mr. Bush lied to get us into the Iraq war, and now he's doing the same thing again. Every time Mr. Bush says something stupid like World War III, the price of gas goes up 25 cents. Mr. Bush is a madman, and he's trying to start another war. Where is the outrage? Has America sunk so low that when the president tries to start another illegal war no one cares? And we wonder why America is no longer respected in the world community.
MARC PERKEL
San Bruno, Calif.
Mr Perkel, apparently referring to the NIE, says that " it has come out that all 16 of our intelligence agencies have determined that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons."
But the NIE says no such thing. Mr Perkel is clearly possessed by Bush Derangement Syndrome.
Once again, here is what the NIE actually says:
A. We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we access with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons....• We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
• We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because of intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and NIC access with only moderate confidence that the halt to those programs represents a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.)
• We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.
Here is how the authors define high and medium confidence:
High confidence generally indicates that our judgements are based on high-quality information, and/or that the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgement. A "high confidence" judgement is not a fact or certainty, however, and such judgements carry a risk of being wrong.Moderate confidence generally means that the information is credibly sourced and plausible but not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence.
(boldface emphasis added)
Therefore, the NIE does not make the absolute statement that "Iran is not developing nuclear weapons."
What it says that Iran probably stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003, we don't think they've restarted it, but aren't really sure.
These are distinctions with a difference, and those who want to criticize the president need to get it right.
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The National Intelligence Estimate on Iranian Nuclear Capabilities
More on the NIE
Posted by Tom at December 10, 2007 7:36 PM
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