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January 3, 2008
The Hawkeye Caukeye
At 7:30am EST Friday, the latest from Fox
Republicans
93 percent of precincts reporting
34% Huckabee
25% Romney
13% Thompson
13% McCain
10% Paul
3 % Guiliani
1 % Hunter
In brief, my take on each:
Mike Huckabee: If Huckabee wins the nomination we can kiss the election goodbye. He's "too Christian", or at least perceived that way, and his "compassionate" stances seem like the path to big government spending. I also don't trust him on foreign policy. Being good on the social issues isn't good enough.
Mitt Romney: My favorite, though I'll admit that it would be hard for him to get elected. I was happy to see that the editors of National Review endorsed him. I think that his conversion on social issues is sincere, but I won't blame you if you think otherwise. He's got executive experience that noone can match, even Giuliani. He's right on all of the other issues, too. I think that his speech last month on faith and values was right on the money. It should have cleared up any "Mormon" isues.
Fred Thompson: Nice guy, and right on all of the issues. No executive experience, and early misteps by his campaign show it. His problem is that he just doesn't stir excitement, and whether anyone likes it or not, this counts. Nevertheless, he's tied with McCain as my #2 choice.
John McCain: I never thought I'd say it, but McCain is tied for my #2 with Thompson. I can't think of anyone better on foreign policy and military issues, he'd be a fiscal hawk, and good on social issues too. Immigration and McCain-Feingold are obvious problems, as is the lack of executive experience. It also seems that at times he's gone out of his way to annoy conservatives. All this said, from the polls I've seen he has the best chance of any of the GOP candidates, I think, of winning the general.
Ron Paul: A nut. His supporters are worse.
Rudy Giuliani: In October I wrote a piece called "Rudy Can't Win", and I don't see any reason to change that assessment. He's good on foreign policy and fiscal matters, but I don't trust him on the social issues, and worst of all, his personal life is full of problems. He's my #3 choice (remember there's a tie for #2).
Duncan Hunter: Great guy, but not going anywhere. You just can't win by running from the House.
The good news from the GOP side is that the Iowa caucuses are overrated in terms of their importance in propelling a candidate to the nomination. New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida, are far better barometers of how a candidate will ultimately do. Wyoming and Nevada, probably don't count as much, though. "Super Tuesday", is, of course, the untimate test, especially since this one (Feb 5) will be the largest yet. In short, Iowa doesn't provide much momentum, as the real primaries do.
Democrats
100 percent of the precincts reporting:
38% Obama
30% Edwards
29% Clinton
2 % Richardson
1 % Biden
0 % Dodd
0 % Kucinich
Barack Obama: Obama is an awfully nice guy, and comes across as genuine, as I think he is. He's the only one of the Democrats that I can imagine having a real conversation with. Too bad he's completely wrong on all of the issues.
John Edwards: The worse of the bunch. His class warfare rhetoric is just about hate speech, and his foreign policy prescriptions make the other Democrats look like hawks.
Hillary Clinton: Oddly, perhaps, she's the Democrat I would vote for if Ron Paul magically got the GOP nomination and no viable third party candidate appeared. Sure, she's manipulative and everything she does is calculated. I don't think she's honest (we never did get a satisfactory answer as to how she made $100.000 on those cattle futures). And of course she'd socialize the country in a way no one else would. Nevertheless, if some pipsqueek dictator like Kim iL Sung of Ahmadinejad got out of line, she'd nuke them off the face of the earth. And that's got to count for something.
Posted by Tom at January 3, 2008 11:00 PM
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Comments
After reviewing tonight's caucus results from Iowa, I'm tempted to suggest that presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney visit a pie maker named Ned if they want to resurrect their now-dead presidential hopes.
Thanks to a magical gift he's had since childhood, Ned's able to touch dead things and bring them back to life. People. Dogs. Dead fruit. It doesn't matter.
Some believe Republican John McCain owes the recent turn-around in his presidential campaign fortunes to Ned's touch. The Arizona senator is rumored to have visited Ned's pie shop (a.k.a., "The Pie Hole") six months ago after his campaign was reported to have run out of money. His campaign was dead then. Now, it's alive, and he's polling at or near the top of national presidential tracking polls.
Unfortunately for Clinton and Romney, two wealthy presidential candidates who saw their campaigns flat-line in Iowa tonight, Ned is not real. And McCain didn't get help from him. Instead, Ned's merely a character on Pushing Daisies, an ABC prime-time program that debuted this fall.
That means they're going to have to come up with something better -- perhaps, a better message or a better strategy -- if they truly hope to win their party nominations. They're going to have to come up with something genuine. Something money can't buy.
Posted by: Bob at January 3, 2008 11:30 PM
Funny enough, I disagree with Ron Paul on foreign policy but, if he does not get the nomination, I am also refusing to vote for the Rep nominee who believes in Internet regulation like most of the others, especially John McCain (whom I would sooner vote for Hillary over).
So you and I are split...meaning the Republican Party is split fatally.
Only maybe Fred Thompson would be a reasonable alternative.
Posted by: Jack Sanderson at January 3, 2008 11:38 PM
Not wanting to sound like an echo of yours Tom, but I agree on basically everything you said. Were I an American, I'd vote for Romney too.
Posted by: Outlaw Mike at January 4, 2008 6:16 PM
snake hunters sez,
POST-ELECTION REFLECTION
_____________________________________________
Three Democrats: Two Experienced Legislators,
Senators Biden & Dodd, and one Green-horn with a
Slogan, and the new un-tested guy sweep the field,
causing the two fellows with decades of experience
to withdraw from the race!
OBAMA smooth as glass, but a rank amatuer in
International Affairs gets an Amazing Victory in IOWA.
Something Haywire Here? Obama had a few thousand
blue placards that stated:
OBAMA, change you can believe in
Is That It? Is that all one needs to
Win A Presidential Election?
Tell Me Tom, are we a nation of Idiots
& Blithering Nin-com-poops, led by one
billionaire master-manipulator?
>>
It's Sheep, Wolves & Sheep-Dogs.
Who Will Survive In 2008? reb
__________________________________________
www.lazyonebenn.blogspot.com
Posted by: Ralph E. at January 4, 2008 10:15 PM
I can't get all worked up over caucuses and primaries--particularly those in states other than my own.
Still, I appreciate those who follow the events for me.
Posted by: Always On Watch at January 5, 2008 7:58 AM
I went to my Hawkeye Caukeye. Supported Thompson.
I think the media wants to portray Huckabee as too religiuos. My complaint with him and Mitt is that I don't think they are seriuos on border control.
Posted by: Tony at January 5, 2008 10:31 AM
Gosh, Tom, you and I generally agree! But McCain? He's too "loose cannon", not to mention removing some of our free speech rights with McCain-Feingold, and his stance on amnesty with McCain-Kennedy? Not to mention he'd stop water-boarding! Tom! Is that really YOU?
Obama is the one we've got to beat...Shrillary just nailed the last nail in her coffin during the debate in New Hampshire last night!
Send Duncan Hunter back to California to get replace a wobbley Awnoald, and get some executive experience, and he can come back to the POTUS race and clean up the mess Obama will make. Concentrate on getting some key senate & congressional seats filled with bona fide conservatives, so that Obama doesn't make too much of a mess!
Huckabee is a flash in the pan, if we're lucky. Read his policy positions and you'll see the Republican version of Jimmy Carter coming down the pike!
Posted by: DagneyT at January 6, 2008 7:22 AM
Should have struck "get"...meant he needs to replace Awnaold.
Posted by: DagneyT at January 6, 2008 7:23 AM
snake hunters sez,
Tom, Key Words: 'New Direction' & "Change"
Sat Night, Jan 5th; Big Event For Democrats.
Sen Edwards Stabs Hillary In The Back with
"The Forces of the Status Quo"...Ouch!
>>______________________________________
Sunday Night, Jan 6th; Big Event for the G.O.P.
All Four Nominees were civil. All were Four-Star
Major Hitters. Romney Hit The Home-Run. He's
Back in the Game In New Hampshire. Wowee!
See S/H Comments Summary. reb
________________________________________________
www.lazyonebenn.blogspot.com
Posted by: Ralph E. at January 7, 2008 12:40 AM
Well, I'm thanking you for your clear vision on McCain. He's my man, and has been throughout 2007.
He's going to take N.H. tomorrow, and we'll have a real race to the nomination, with the whole thing being decided on Feb. 5.
Keep it up!
Posted by: Americaneocon at January 7, 2008 9:35 PM
