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January 9, 2008
The New Hampshire Primary
From Fox, here's how it turned out
Republicans
37% McCain
32% Romney
11% Huckabee
9% Giuliani
8% Paul
1% Thompson
What I'd say to each of them:
John McCain: This is a big boost to your campaign, of that there is no doubt. But New Hampshire voters are mavericks like you are, and this does not prove you can win over mainstream Republican voters. Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina will determine whether you have staying power. I can live with you as our candidate, although I have reservations.
Mitt Romney: My favorite. You've spent a ton of money for two silver medals. You need to win in Michigan, but I think can stay alive if you get another second there, as long as it's a close one, and preferably if it's not McCain who wins (unfortunately, though, it looks like he will). If you do come in second, though, however, is fine as long as you win at least two of the next three states; Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida. If you can do that then you'll look good going into Super Tuesday.
Mike Huckabee: If you fail to win Michigan, Nevada, or South Carolina, then we'll know that Iowa was a fluke. My guessing is that you won't be in the race for long.
Rudy Giuliani: If your "late primary" strategy pays off, we'll all say you're clever as a fox. Of course, if it doesn't we'll be saying you're dumb as a rock.
Ron Paul: You're not going to win, and you must know it. At this point I can only assume that you're just in it to make a point. You'll probably get 5 - 10% in each primary, which I guess is enough to convince you to soldier on. What you really need to do is tell your supporters to cool it. They're an embarrassment.
Fred Thompson: It's got to be embarrasing to finish behind Ron Paul. I'll give you one more primary, but if you can't finish strong in Michigan it's time to get out.
Duncan Hunter: It's time to get out. You're a great congressman, but it's just too difficult to run from the House. Please go back to doing what you do best.
Democrats
39% Clinton
36% Obama
17% Edwards
5% Richardson
1% Kucinich
What I'd say to each of them:
Hillary Clinton: Whew, that was a relief, wasn't it? After Iowa you could see your political life flashing before your eyes. Now you've eaked out a victory, however narrowly. Nevertheless, it's painfully obvious that this isn't going to be the cakewalk you'd assumed. You made it through the granite state because you finally appear human. Those manufactured tears didn't hurt, either. My question is; when are you going to unleash all that dirt you've been gathering about Obama?
Barack Obama: You didn't lose by much, and Hillary is still scared of you (truth be told, so am I). You've got much of the Democrat establishment against you, but if you win or at least do well in Nevada, and win either South Carolina or Florida, you're in excellent shape for Super Tuesday. Your message is mostly yourself, and the compressed primarys this time are good news for you because most people won't take time to really examine your record or positions. astly, are you ready to get hit by the full force of the Clinton machine?
John Edwards: Despite your apparent strong finish in Iowa and New Hampshire, this race is between Obama and Hillary. You'll always hit the high teens or maybe higher, but you're not going to win a single primary. You really should get out, but I know you won't.
Bill Richardson: Smart decision to get out of the race.
Dennis Kucinich: You've had fun, but now it's time to get out.
Posted by Tom at January 9, 2008 8:30 PM
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Comments
Good stuff, I'll be watching as the traveling circus continues.
Posted by: jason at January 10, 2008 3:13 PM
