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February 6, 2008
Super Tuesday
The results are in, and while it's all pretty much over on the GOP side, the Democrats are in a dead heat.
The Republicans
1,191 delegates are needed to win. Here is what each candidate has so far
680 McCain
270 Romney
176 Huckabee
Even though McCain barely has half the delegates he needs to win, he has all the momentum and unless a miracle occurs will win the nomination.
By all rights McCain should not by the Republican candidate. That he did speaks volumes about the weakness of the Republican field. There was simply not a single viable conservative with broad national appeal in the bunch.
Once Thompson dropped out, conservatives spent a lot of time pushing Mitt Romney. It should be clear by now that he can't win in November. That he lost the south on Super Tuesday proves it. Whether this was due to the presence of Huckabee, anti-Mormonism, or lack of "authenticity" on his part is irrelevant. Romney simply couldn't connect with voters. He came across as a programmed ken doll who would say whatever it took to get elected.
By the same token, however, McCain didn't win the south either. The big states that he won (CA, NY, IL, NY & NJ) were those that will go Democrat anyway. He could pick Huckabee as his veep to try and shore up his support in the south, but Huckabee would be the wrong guy to pick. He needs a solid conservative, one without Huckabee's baggage (preacher, one-liners, "too christian").
The problem conservatives have with McCain isn't so much his overall record, which is more conservative than many are now giving him credit for. He has an 82% lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union, which has to count for something. It's more his attitude towards us than anything else. He enjoys being a "maverick"; i.e. unpredictable. He seems to enjoy sticking it to us, and abandoning us on hot-button issues like immigration. It's not that he "reaches out to the other side", it's that he does so gleefully and as if he likes working with Ted Kennedy more than his fellow Republicans. He glows in the media spotlight, which fawns over him.
Further, the hard truth is that McCain's appeal is mostly based on a cult of personality. His persona is the war hero, the guy who endured 5 1/2 years in the Hanoi Hilton. He has exploited this more than any other politician I can think of, and that even includes John Kerry. While George McGovern and Bob Dole famously refused to use their war records in their presidential campaigns, John McCain uses his relentlessly. Yet is is far from clear that military service makes for a better president, even a wartime one. Our two best wartime presidents, Lincoln and FDR, never served.
McCain now has an obligation to reach out to conservatives, and to make a herculean effort to unify the party. When I got home tonight I listened to a robocall on my answering maching from Senator McCain. He spoke about "securing the border first" and appointing Supreme Court justices "like John Roberts and Samuel Alito", as well as the "right to life". These are all important issues for conservatives, and I for one appreciate this first step he took to getting us on board.
The question now is whether conservatives will come together and support McCain if he wins the nomination. If we do, then we stand a chance, at least against Clinton. If not, we're doomed. Conservatives can either pout, sit at home, and put a Democrat in the
White House, or they can grow up and accept that even though McCain leaves a lot to be desired he's much better than any Democrat.
If conservatives want to hold out until the next round of primaries, hoping against hope that Romney (or even Huckabee) can stage an upset that's fine. But the time is fast approaching when it'll all be over.
The Democrats
2,035 delegates are needed to win. Here is what each candidate has so far
818 Clinton
730 Obama
Unlike the situation in the GOP, this race is far from settled.
My heart says that I want the Democrats to keep fighting it out as long as possible. I'de love a brokered convention in which nasty barbs were traded. I'd love to see liberals spend all their money on the primaries.
My head, however, tells me that the infighting among the Democrats is something of an illusion. The Democrats had a huge turnout in their primaries. The Republicans had low turnout. This speaks volumes about how the Democrats are excited about their candidates while the Republicans are not thrilled about any of theirs.
Despite the sniping between Obama and Clinton, the reality is that ideologically there's not a dimes worth of difference between them. Their differences are simply the result of identity politics. In all likelihood they'll unit once they choose their candidate.
On the other hand, there were and are bigger ideological differences between the GOP candidates. There also seems to be more animosity between the various camps. This means that conservatives will have a hard time accepting McCain, whereas ideologically liberals can accept Obama or Clinton.
Conclusion
This race is the Democrats to lose. They can, however be beaten. Despite the undeniable excitement among Democrat voters, both Obama and Clinton have serious libabilities that, if properly exploited, could prove fatal.
But this will only occur if the Republican party units. Conservatives can pout for a time, but sooner or later will have to decide if putting Obama or Clinton in the White House is worth sitting this election out. I think such a decision to be absolutely nuts, and will explore why in future posts. For now we are still in the primary season.
Posted by Tom at February 6, 2008 7:00 PM
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Comments
Good post. I am one of those conservatives who is leaning towards voting a straight Republican ticket, but leaving the presidential portion of the ballot blank or voting third party or voting for Clinton or Obama.
A lot of it has nothing to do with McCain. I simply don't like the arrangment where the Republicans hold the White House and the Democrats hold Congress. I prefer that the Democrats in Congress be held accountable for what they do and as long as a Republican is in the White House, the voters don't hold them accountable, thinking that the Republican president is "running the country."
The best years in congressional elections for Republicans come after a Democrat is elected president.
4 years after Carter was elected in 1976, Republicans won a net of 12 US Senate seats to take the Senate majority for the first time since the 1950s. And they gained a net 33 US House seats.
2 years after Clinton was elected in 1992, Republicans won their first Congressional majority in 40 years, including a net gain of 8 Senate seats and 52 House seats.
So, there is a silver lining to the cloud of losing the White House. The other party has to absorb all of the "heat" from the people and that prepares the way for a comeback in congressional races. But is this reason enough to hope for a Democrat victory in this year's presidential race? For me, I lean towards supporting that outcome.
I would feel differently if the GOP had hung on to the Senate or the House in 2006. But that's over and it doesn't look like we will be winning that back this year anyway. So, that's where I am on this.
I said the same over at Downeastblog. Mark Steyn and John O'Sullivan at National Review seem to have a position similar to mine. That doesn't mean we are right. So, maybe conservatives need to keep thinking this thing through. Either way, it's not like we are taking our ball and going home. It's not an emotional thing with me. If anything, I'm overthinking this election.
Posted by: Mark at February 6, 2008 11:07 PM
Thank you for stopping by Mark. I must take strong issue with what you say.
Conservatives who say that a Democrat in the White House will revitalize the our movement are living in a fantasy world and here's why.
1) There is no reason to think that we can retake the White House in 4, 8, or even 12 years. Counting on a repeat of 76-80 is wishful thinking.
2) There is insufficient reason to think that putting a Democrat in the White House will revitalize the conservative movement. It is at least equally likely that such a move would marginalize us forever, or at least a generation. The country has changed since 76-80, and not necessarily in our direction.
3) Clinton or Obama would do enormous damage to the country, even if they were only in 4 years. Either of them are much farther to the left than Carter or Bill Clinton, and with a Democrat congress would be unstoppable.
4) Most of the damage would be irreversable. Good luck taking away universal healthcare. Once the troops are out of Iraq and the war lost it's lost. Once Iran gets the bomb the game there's up.
5) Look at the congressional numbers. The chance of a repeat of 94 is unlikely, and counting on it is wishful thinking.
Sorry Mark but I have to say that I'm losing patience with conservatives who say they're going to sit out the presidential race.
Posted by: Tom the Redhunter at February 7, 2008 9:09 PM
Snake Hunters sez,
The Endorsements Are The Vital Key.
_____________________________________
First Sen. John Kerry ~ OBama.
Then O.S.I. CEO, Eli Pariser ~ Obama.
Then "Teddy", once again ~ Obama.
Hilly/Billie's Burnt Toast! It's all...
MoveOn's King, George Soros ~ Obama.
Dem's V.P.~ Wes Clark ~ GOP V.P.~ Gingrich
or if McCain Can Swallow Pride, Romney. reb
Posted by: Ralph E. at February 8, 2008 12:57 AM
Don't lose patience, Tom, there's still months to weigh the options.
You make good points - the problem is that conservatives see the party moving more and more to the left - at what point do they say "enough"? Some are saying _now_ is the point. I think that there's the possibility that it's time the conservatives stop being a "wing" of the Republican party and form a Conservative Party...but that takes time. Electing McCain would both give impetus to such a movement and time to get a new party going, if there was enough strength to the movement.
For me, the biggest drawback to electing one of the Dems is the Justices on the SC who are just waiting for a Dem in office so they can retire, knowing that their places will be taken by left leaning activist Justices who will further erode our Constitutional rights. That's an action that _cannot_ be corrected for 20-30 years - and by then it may not be possible to correct it.
Posted by: suek at February 8, 2008 12:15 PM
You're right, suek, I was a bit quick to lose patience. My apologies to Mark.
I do need to recognize that McCain has spend a good deal of time annoying us conservatives over the years. He's got some making up to do. He's off to a good start though, and we'll see where it goes.
And you're right, too about the Supreme Court. Six of the justices, I believe, are over 68, so the next president will undoubtably have the opportunity to appoint several.
Posted by: Tom the Redhunter at February 9, 2008 12:40 PM
