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July 29, 2008
Not Mike Huckabee
I found this story in today's Washington Times irritating
Prominent evangelical leaders are warning Sen. John McCain against picking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as his running mate, saying their troops will abandon the Republican ticket on Election Day if that happens.They say Mr. Romney lacks trust on issues such as outlawing abortion and opposing same-sex marriage and because he is a Mormon. Opposition is particularly powerful among those who supported former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the Republican presidential primaries earlier this year.
"McCain and Romney would be like oil and water," said evangelical novelist Tim LaHaye, who supported Mr. Huckabee. "We aren't against Mormonism, but Romney is not a thoroughgoing evangelical and his flip-flopping on issues is understandable in a liberal state like Massachusetts, but our people won't understand that."
The Rev. Rob McCoy, pastor of Calvary Chapel in Thousand Oaks, Calif., who speaks at evangelical events across the country, told The Washington Times, "I will vote for McCain unless he does one thing. You know what that is? If he puts Romney on the ticket as veep.
"It will alienate the entire evangelical community - 62 million self-professing evangelicals in this country, half of them registered to vote, are going to be deeply saddened," Mr. McCoy added.
Grrrr
The idea that these evangelicals would sabotoge the election by not voting for McCain is infuriating.
They can claim all they want that Mormonism is not an issue, but I think that it plays a role whether they want to admit it or not.
I'm not happy with Romney's recent conversion to the conservative side of the social issues either. But the real question in any "flip" is whether the conversion is real or whether it is done for political reasons. From what I've read Romney has offered genuine reasons for changing his mind that makes sense.
If people don't like Mitt Romney, fine. I like him and have never made any secret of it. Of all the Republican candidates he was the most reliably conservative on the most issues (once you got past the flips, anyway), and had experience to credibly claim he could put words to action. He's got more business and management experience than any of the other presidential candidates in either party.
There seems to be a segment who won't trust anyone who hasn't been a conservative their whole life. Kathryn Jean Lopez dealt with this pretty well, I think, over at The Corner earlier today:
Mitt Romney -- is an example of someone who came to the wisdom of conservatism through practical experience. He saw its reasonableness in the face of liberal overreach. We should want to embrace such conversions. We should want to encourage people to get Right.Or we can fervently close the door to them and their contributions and fresh blood. What a good move for a movement that needs re-energization and recruits.
Maybe it's just me, but the Democrats never seem to undergo such angst when one of their own flips to a more liberal position. Al Gore was famously pro-life while a senator, and underwent miraculous conversion when he decided to run for his party's nomination. Joe Lieberman became more liberal when Gore selected him for the veep spot. But too many on the right almost seem not to want anyone to come round to our point of view.
But all this said we have to admit that there is a lot of opposition to Mitt ROmney. If you still want to not trust him because of his flips, fine. But to say you won't vote Republican if he's on the ticket is madness.
Frankly, it goes to show how narrow-minded some of these evangelicals really are.
Not that this trait is unique to them; far from it. The Democrats have their own problems with their own special interest groups, many of whom exhibit the same attitude on their own issues as do the evangelicals in this article.
How Meaningful is the Article?
Before we go too far we need to evaluate the article itself. I haven't studied the issue so only have the polls cited in the article to go on. I am not certain how much influence the evangelical leaders cited in this article really have.
My own church is affiliated with the Calvary Chapel cited in the article (rather than a traditional protestant denomination where all churches are part of the same organization, each church in the Calvary network is an independent entity). I listen to a few preachers on the radio such as Charles Stanley and Greg Laurie, and I like James Dobson, but while I enjoy their message of personal salvation there's no way I'm going to pay attention to what any of them say about whom I should vote for.
The question is, how many evangelicals will?
Some really do take the advice of leaders such as Rob McCoy. Evangelicals like Pat Robertson have more support than we upper-middle class suburbanites like to admit. In the end, though, I think that most will get over their inhibitions and vote for a McCain/Romney ticket.
I even have to wonder how many people who attend an evangelical church have even heard of the leaders cited in this article. I hadn't.
All this said, I'm not necessarily advocating Romney for the veep spot. He would bring a lot to the ticket, but I'm not sure if such a high-profile selection would gain McCain more than he'd lose. McCain desperately needs someone who can talk economics, but it may be safer to pick a relative unknown.
The Problem With Huckabee
The worst person McCain could pick is Mike Huckabee. For starters, Huckabee is or at least was a Babtist pastor, and I want to keep my pastors in the pulpit and out of politics.
The religion issue also makes him easy to attack. It'd be easy to paint him as a religious extremist.
McCain would lose far more votes by choosing Huckabee than he would gain. In order to win this election we need to solidify the conservative base but also to win the middle. Huckabee would lose the middle. Hillary supporters who might under the right circumstances support McCain will flee from a ticket that includes Huckabee.
Huckabee fails two legs of the three-legged conservative stool. He is right on the social issues, which is why the evangelicals love him. But he fails the other two; economics and foreign policy. The Cato Institute gave him a "D" for his fiscal policy while governor of Little Rock. From what I recall him saying during the primaries, his foreign policy would be closer to Carter than to Reagan.
Then there's the issue of his one-liners. Huckabee fancies himself a comedian, and is known for his clever quips. The problem with this is that all it takes is one inappropriate comment to land you in hot water, and Huckabee already has a few of those under his belt. A few more and Republicans would be in the embarrassing position of watching McCain disavow his own vice presidential selection.
So it's accurate to say I've taken a strong dislike to Mike Huckabee. That said, I'd vote for McCain if he chose him.
Conclusion
I doubt that McCain will select either Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney. While each would bring a particular strength to the ticket, each is controversial, and would alienate certain voters. The last thing McCain needs is that sort of controversy. I think he'll pick a relative no name who can talk economics and doesn't have a controversial background.
Posted by Tom at July 29, 2008 8:45 PM
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Comments
If Romney had a sincere change of heart on the abortion issue because of a family members experience, that still doesn't explain why at the exact same time why he also changed his mind on gay rights and both decisions changed for whichever election that he was running in. He ran left of Ted Kennedy in Massachusettes.
In his big speech to the country on his faith he said that he could not turn his back on the faith of his fathers even if it cost him the election, but he wasn't singing that tune while running for governor. He abandoned all of his mormon beliefs just a few year earlier and hoped that noone would remember.
I was turned off on Romney when he first announced his bid for the whitehouse calling himself a lifelong hunter and then it tuned out that he never has even had a hunting license. It told me that he was not honest and would say anything that he thought would get the most votes. He has no principles that I can see.
Posted by: Rena Cook at July 30, 2008 9:25 AM
Also, you mentioned that Mike Huckabee should not get chosen because he was a former Baptist minister. Were you aware that Romney is a former Mormon bishop?
You also mention his economical prowess. Are you aware that Romney spent over 20 million of his own personal money on his failed bid for the whitehouse. Not a good investment I would say.
Mike Huckabee won way more states on a fraction of the money that Romney spent and was completely out of debt when he ended his bid.
I would say Huchabee ran a far better/smarter camapign.
Posted by: Rena Cook at July 30, 2008 9:33 AM
I agree with one thing that you said: McCain will not choose either Huckabee or Romney. You are wrong on 2 accounts. According to Rassmussen polling done July 27 Mike Huckabee is more favored than Mitt Romney and has about 10 percent fewer who have an unforavable view of him. So, your pro-Romney view is not shared by most people. You are right! Huckabee is disliked by liberatrians and people who are "wall-street" Republicans.
This brings me to my second point: There is a divide between Wall-Street Republicans and Main Street Republicans. Many want to make it an evangelical thing, but it is deeper than that. For example, Pawlenty said, "the Republican Party should be the Sam's club party and not the country club party." This split is the real problem.
Jamie.seales@vanderbilt.edu shoot me an email so we can talk in the future:)
Posted by: jamie at July 30, 2008 11:30 AM
Country-club Republicans! I knew there was something that made me feel uneasy about Romney. I couldn't put my finger on it. I know that he is the scion of a very wealthy family, and of course that makes him part of the private country-club crowd---Wall Street, yachts, estates, personal billions. Out of my league. He strikes me as cold and calculating, wonder what he thinks. He does not seem folksy. The evangelicals don't seem to feel at ease with him any more than I do, and I am an agnostic.
Among Republicans, I liked Huckabee the best. He is warm and gregarious. He plays bass guitar in a band, and that made him look so approachable and amiable to me. As an agnostic, I could even dismiss his being a Baptist minister. He is quite articulate, can think on his feet, and he talks like the man on the six o'clock news and not like Bill Clinton or Bush.
I always thought conservatives were all Bible-belt Christian evangelicals. Bush got elected the first time due to the influence of the evangelicals, I thought. That evangelist that died not too long ago said that he would live to see a born-again Christian in the White House, and he did. He used to go and visit Bush in the White House, and when asked who his favorite philosopher was, Bush answered "Jesus", and said that the first thing he did every morning was read his Bible. That won over the evangelicals. I think now they feel abandoned.
I don't think the evangelicals want someone who reaches for the Book of Mormon, who has access to the inner sanctums of any Mormon temple, when other Christians do not. The Mormons have set themselves apart that way; it seems elitist and secretive. Other Christian churches are so open and welcoming.
I hope you're not irritated at me for not liking Romney, but I just have this gut feeling about him. We've had someone of his class in the White House already.
You know, if those evangelicals will abandon the GOP should Romney be chosen VP, then they are just doing what they did when many of them abandoned the Democratic party over the loss of segregation. They vote their personal prejudices. Probably many of them will just stay home and not vote, and some of Hillary's supporters will do the same or switch to McCain.
It is so hard to feel out which way this election is likely to go. There have been so many surprises in who would end up the nominees.
Emilie
Port Orchard, WA
Posted by: Emilie at July 30, 2008 7:33 PM
I hope he doesn't pick either of them but prefer Mitt of the two.. but then again, my all-time politician is Phil Gramm. Oh well...
Posted by: bro at July 30, 2008 10:05 PM
The story by Redhunter is complete and total nonsense. Those who support Huckabee do not want Mitt Romney anywhere near the Oval Office because he is symptomatic of all that is wrong in Washington DC. He is the puppet of the economic conservatives who have a rigged system that make the rich richer and the poor poorer. Their mouthpieces, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and the like are pushing Romney as hard as they can, because they want McCain to side with the establishment, not bring the reform that is everyone knows is needed, and which will get Obama elected unless McCain chooses someone like Huckabee, and there is only one person like Huckabee - himself. The objection has nothing to do with Mormonism or even flip-flopping. People understand that Romney is inauthentic and would destroy any chance that McCain has of winning.
Posted by: David Anderson at July 30, 2008 10:52 PM
The discussion above, paticularly TRH's comment about Republican angst and his cite of Kathryn Jean Lopez, encapsulates the dilemma for McCain and the GOP.
A probelm for the GOP is that it consists of constituencies that have a litmus test(s) whatever the test is: "He became a consrvative but was not born one." "abortion" "gay marriage" "taxes" Whatever.
I like John McCain, personally, which is not necessarily enough to convince me to vote for him. But the GOP, individual Republicans, have to make a decision, and that decision is to dowhatever is necessary to elect John McCain b/c he is the GOP candidate.
From the outside looking in I see all these groups saying: "If he is unwilling or unable to execute our preferred game plan, we are going to take our ball and go home."
I can only say: "Adios. Voya con Dios."
The fact is that for McCain to win the election, he needs to win the independent swing voters. Bush was able to do this (or maybe not) in 2000 and this election resembles that one more than 2004.
So I say to all the Evagelicals w/ litmus paper in their hands and all the conservatives w/ their check lists: "Get over yourselves."
You elected George W. Bush and set him up as your icon, and people like me can write volumes about the rotten job he has done and the majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track.
New voters and youing voters are flocking to Obama which at the very least indicates that the forces that have driven the GOP need to change tactics.
Conservatism isn't dead by any means. Just read the comments above. But it desparately needs a new set of clothes to attract voters particularly young voters and swing voters. You cannot accomplish that if you greet them at the door w/ litmus paper and check lists.
Regards.
TLGK
Posted by: The Loop Garoo Kid at July 31, 2008 12:03 PM
LOL
What a world it is when of all the comments above the one I agree with most is made by the liberal; The Loop Garoo Kid.
I wrote this post on a whim, yet it has garnered more comments than any in awhile. I wish my Iraq posts would create this much discussion, but such is life.
Posted by: Tom the Redhunter at July 31, 2008 12:29 PM
The democrats have similar divisiveness left over from the primaries: many Hillary supporters still say they would rather vote for McCain than Obama out of protest. Most of these are pro-choice feminists, but they are really upset Hillary lost, and are willing (as least they say so) to vote for the opposition because they are so bitter. I find this year's election very amusing.
Posted by: jason at August 2, 2008 1:25 PM



