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November 16, 2008
See, I Told You We Were Winning
Reporting from Iraq, Michael Yon tells Glenn Reynolds that
"The was is over and we won"
Lucky for the Democrats Iraq wasn't an issue in the election.
"There's nothing going on. I'm with the 10th Mountain Division, and about half of the guys I'm with haven't fired their weapons on this tour and they've been here eight months. And the place we're at, South Baghdad, used to be one of the worst places in Iraq. And now there's nothing going on. I've been walking my feet off and haven't seen anything. I've been asking Iraqis, 'do you think the violence will kick up again,' but even the Iraqi journalists are sounding optimistic now and they're usually dour." There's a little bit of violence here and there, but nothing that's a threat to the general situation. Plus, not only the Iraqi Army, but even the National Police are well thought of by the populace. Training from U.S. toops has paid off, he says, in building a rapport.
It turns out that it's even better than that. Reynolds one bit wrong, and Yon emailed in this correction:
"Actually, NONE of them have fired their weapons in combat during this tour, and about half of them are combat veterans from Afghanistan and/or Iraq."
With news like this it's no wonder that my liberal commenters have nothing to say about my Iraq posts.
After all, after Bush announced the surge in December of 2006, rather than support it the Democrats turned into Civil-war era Copperheads, squawking that the war was lost and there was nothing we could do.
But as I reported at the time, those who promoted the surge (General David Petraeus, Sen. John McCain, Dr. Fred Kagan, Gen. Jack Keane (ret), Australian Lt. Col. (Dr) David Kilcullen, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, and many others) said that no, we can do it.
Then, as the surge was implemented, throughout 2007 and into 2008 I reported on our progress through many "Iraq Briefings" and more. It became clear in late 2007 that we were winning, and since then we've done nothing but consolidate our gains.
Let us now review a little history.
First up is an excellent video documenting Senator Obama's pronouncements opposing the surge. Listen to him announce his "Iraq War De-Escallation Act of 2007" on January 30 of that year in which he demands an immediate withdrawal before the surge can take effect. Note also when he says that he believes that sending 20,000 additional troops would be counterproductive:
As late as last January, the Obama campaign was insisting that the surge was not working
Sorry, but although much still remained to be done, by January of 2007 it was clear that the surge was working.
I know, I'm "piling on." After all, Obama has been elected president and we on the right should just learn to deal with it.
Not to worry, I'll cut him a break when he takes office.
But the reason for this post is that I see a President Obama claiming credit for all this. Call me cynical, but I can just see him making big announcements everytime a unit comes home from Iraq, and all the leftie bloggers proclaiming too that it was all due to the wisdom of The One.
We'll know the truth, though, which is that Obama, Biden, and virtually all other Democrats wanted to quit the war back in 2006 if not earlier, and opposed the surge and all that it entailed. Then, months after it was apparent to everyone else that the surge was working and we were winning they denied it and continued to denigrate our effort.
Anyone who has followed the "Iraq Briefings" I've posted on this blog know that we have been so successful that troop withdrawals have in fact been going on for months.
Interestingly, our commanders on the ground tend to be more cautious than reporters like Yon. Last October, Col. Philip Battaglia said what we were "not yet at the tipping point" whereby success could be assured. Battaglia is commander of the 4th Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, which is part of Multi-National Division - Center, which in turn is headquartered by the 10th Mountain Division, which is the area where Yon reported from.
Still, that we have been winning is evident. Maj. Gen. Michael Oates, Commander of Multi-National Division-Center, and the 10th Mountain Division, reported last July on the incredible changes he'd seen since his last deployment, saying that "it's indisputable that the level of attacks are phenomenally low."
In that same month Col Tom James, commander of the 4th Brigade Combat Team of the 3rd Infantry Division, part of f Multi-National Division - Center, headquartered by the 10th Mountain Division, told us about the confident and capable Iraqi leadership that he'd seen.
As for troop withdrawals, we've seen a lot of that too. Just last week Maj. Gen. Martin Post, Deputy Commanding General, Multi-National Force-West, headquartered by the I Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward), spoke of how the Marines had reduced their forces by 50% and had turned over all of al-Anbar to Iraqi control. They're closing bases down (including Camp Fallujah!) and the remaining units are in oversight mode only.
Part of Multinational Division-Center, Col. Dominic Caraccilo, commander of the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), said that his 4,000 man unit will be replaced by two battalions that total 1,800 troops.
To be sure, some commanders are reporting that although their areas are stable now, things could take a turn for the worse if we're not careful.
Col. William Hickman, Commander of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), which is part of Multinational Division-Baghdad and headquartered by the 4th Infantry Divison, said in October that although there has been much progress, "the situation's certainly fragile."
As always, Steve Schippert provides some of the best analysis of Yon's report and what's going on over at The Tank. Don't miss it.
In the end, though, if Obama wants to claim that the drawdown is all due to him, I'll just have to sit back and watch. I just hope that he listens to our commanders and follows their advice on just how fast we should bring them out.
Update
Here are two excellent articles by Peter Wehner in Commentary that are worth your reading
From April of 2008, "Obama's War," in which Wehner traces Obama's evolving position on the war. He's held several. Basically he went from total opposition before it, wondering whether he was wrong after seeing the statue of Saddam toppled, to wanting to send more troops to Iraq, to opposing the surge and finally denying that it was working. In other words,he's been anything but the model of consistency that he's claimed himself to be.
Second is "Liberals and the Surge." In this piece Wehner describes how no matter what the news about how successful the surge was, leading liberals continued their mantra that all was lost and that nothing was or could work. Finally, when it could no longer be denied that violence was way down, they claimed that it was not because of anything our military did or due to any Administration policy.
Posted by Tom at November 16, 2008 8:45 PM
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Comments
TRH,
Any thoughts on the new accord?
TLGK
Posted by: The Loop Garoo Kid at November 17, 2008 11:30 AM
Hi Loop
I haven't read it and probably won't, for the simple reason that if both sides are happy then so am I. I wasn't too worried that it wouldn't be signed, as I figured that the Iraqis were just trying to get the best deal they could and wanted to look tough to their own people (I said as much in the 10 November Iraq Briefing). I have read a few articles somewhere about how Iran wanted to stop it from being signed but obviously didn't, and so is now somewhat licking it's wounds.
And you simply must work on your spelling. Picky as I am I end up correcting about half of your comments so don't say I never did anything for you!
Tom
Posted by: The Redhunter
at November 17, 2008 7:40 PM
I have no problem posting, and conceding that I was wrong when I agreed with the idea the surge wasn't worth it. I opposed the surge on the grounds that since the Bush administration had mismanaged the war for so long, it wasn't worth the extra effort. But with the replacement of Rumsfeld with Robert Gates, and the attendance of Gen. Petraeus, the whole way we think about and approach Irag has changed for the better, and these are the positive results. It is great to hear that Obama is considering keeping Gates in the Sec. of Defense position.
With Gen. Petraeus moved into command for the entire region, I foreseen a refocusing of efforts on Pakistan/Afghanistan. While I don't think it was wise to start the war/occupation of Iraq, it's great to see things are working out so we can focus on the long standing threat location in Pakistan/Afghanistan.
Posted by: jason at November 20, 2008 6:51 PM
Hi jason, and yeah I was being more than a little cocky on this post. Forgive me, but we on the right haven't had a lot to feel good about these past few years! Our guys in Congress screwed up royally and GWB let us down big time too.
Anyway, yes I have noticed that you have no problem admitting when you were wrong, which speaks to your character. I on the other hand probably hold on to things for too long.
I too am happy that Obama is considering retaining Gates and will congratulate him if he does so.
I just wish some Democrat somewhere would acknowledge that the surge was a success and that they were wrong in opposing it. If the Republicans, save for John McCain, stood by a failing policy too long in 2004-06, then the Democrats made the same or a worse mistake in 2007-present.
No doubt now that Iraq is on the right track we can refocus towards Afghanistan and Pakistan. Look for a lot more posts about that area of the world here.
Posted by: The Redhunter
at November 20, 2008 8:40 PM
No worries. If Iraq wasn't on the upswing, then you Republicans would really be looking at a long time out in the cold. Watching Karl "the Architect" Rove comment for Fox News on election night was enough vindication for me that I don't have any further need to gloat. In fact, I bet we'll see a resurgence of legitimate conservatives in the next Congressional cycle, since we've taken out all the ilk of Ted Stevens, Larry Craig, Duke Cunningham, Tom Foley, who really exemplify hyprocracy. The new crop of Republican governors hold al ot of potential, and now the Democrats are in the spot light, they could feel the ire of the electorate if the economy continues to lag. While it will be somewhat undue for Obama to reap the credit for the surge when we finally start bringing the troops home, he will also bear the brunt of the public ire for the failure to properly regulate the banking and mortgage industry, which occurred under the watch of GWB.
I completely agree that Iraq is much improved, but I'm still wary of simplified statements like "The was is over and we won." It smacks of the hubris of the "Mission Accomplished" banner. The reality is that these gains are not irreversible and will require a prolonged military commitment. Sure, many die-hard liberals will oppose any military involvement in Iraq, but what really matters is what Obama and his administration do once they are actually in power.
Posted by: jason at November 21, 2008 3:53 PM
jason, Yon doesn't buy into simplistic formulations; his statement was just meant as a pithy expression, that's all. I've read him too many years. You have to know the background. Don't take the statement so literally.
I'm looking at the GOP governors too, as the source of new ideas for us. Everyone's eye is on Bobby Jindal, who I think holds real promise. As for being out in the cold, well, it's good for us and we needed it anyway. I'm pretty optimistic about our comeback, actually.
Posted by: The Redhunter
at November 21, 2008 10:59 PM



