The Redhunter

From the first article, here's yet another reason for Israel to press home the attack:

An immense network of tunnels - many of them still believed to be intact, despite repeated Israeli bombings - had enabled Hamas to progress a fair way down the path to replicating Hizbullah's weapons capacity and subterranean entrenchment. If the smuggling is allowed to resume, Israel will merely have set the stage for a far tougher next round against a Hamas more determined than ever to bring Israel to its knees - just as Hizbullah's serene rearmament since 2006 now sees it reconstituted as a greater strategic threat than it posed three years ago.

Such a shame all that energy directed towards tunnels was not directed towards building industry, which would work to the betterment of the people of Gaza.

Again from the Jerusualem Post, this time from Tuesday:

As the IDF operation in the Gaza Strip entered its 10th day, Hamas has begun sending conflicting messages regarding its intentions.

These contradictory messages, Palestinian political analysts said, reflected the state of confusion in Hamas and raised questions as to who was calling the shots in the Gaza Strip.

While some Hamas leaders have been openly signaling their readiness to accept a new cease-fire, others are still calling for pursuing the fight against Israel "until victory."

What is clear is that Hamas is now desperate for a lull in the fighting. But it is also eager to score some kind of a "military victory" before a cease-fire is reached.

During the July/Aug 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, we saw many articles from trustworthy sources questioning Israeli strategy and wondering whether they could achieve any meaningful victory. Not so much this time. We have the usual drivel from the usual sources, but once you filter them out we are presented with an entirely different picture: If Israel can hold out against the so-called "international community" she has a chance to smash Hamas. As I pointed out yesterday, the only chance for true peace is to let that happen.

Tuesday Evening Update

Bill Roggio, writing at The Weekly Standard, provides a hope and a warning. Roggio has a history of correct analysis with regards to Iraq, so I take him seriously.

First the hope:

The 18-day old Israeli operation in Gaza appears to be on the cusp of intensifying as Israeli troops are preparing to conduct the third phase of the operation and enter the urban sprawl of Gaza City. Intense fighting is expected as Hamas has dug in and planted mines and booby traps along the roads and in buildings. Clearing a city the size of Gaza City may take weeks and will generate more images of the plight of the Palestinian people.

Reports from the region indicate Hamas may indeed be on the ropes. Israeli intelligence believes Hamas's military arm has suffered significant losses. As Michael Goldfarb noted yesterday, Hamas's leadership in Gaza is pushing for a ceasefire, despite calls to continue the fight by Hamas's leadership in Damascus and the Iranians.

Fatah, Hamas's political enemy, has essentially endorsed the Israeli incursion and has held Hamas responsible for Palestinian deaths. And despite reports to the contrary, the vaunted "Arab Street" has been relatively quiet as the Israelis pound Gaza. Most Arab regimes are pleased to watch Israel destroy the Iranian and Syrian-sponsored Hamas.

Phase One was the air campaign, with Phase Two being the initial ground invasion. Now Israel stands poised to launch a Third Phase, which would be to enter Gaza City and clean out the rats nest of Hamas fighters, hopefully once and for all.

However, it might not be launched:

Despite the current momentum on the Israelis'side, the word from Israel is the leadership troika of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni may be getting cold feet in taking the fight into the heart of the cities in Gaza to root out Hamas.

Political sources said Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni decided late on Monday against ordering troops in the next two or three days to engage in all-out urban warfare.

Opening a "Phase 3" of the offensive would likely complicate truce efforts, lead to intense street fighting and could cause heavy casualties on both sides, a politically risky move less than a month before Israel's parliamentary election.

Israel clearly has the upper hand in the fight. While the Israelis were clear that their goal wasn't to defeat Hamas, they may actually have the opportunity to do so. Olmert, Livni, and Barak could very well snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by cutting a peace deal with Hamas and leaving the organization intact and in control of Gaza. As Goldfarb said yesterday, the Israelis would be well served to "give war a chance."

Olmert gave up in Lebanon because the war was not going well and international pressure was too much. This is different, however. Operation Cast Lead has been going relatively well and the objectives the IDF set for itself have been obtained. The international pressure is not nearly as intense, and many or most Arabs know that Hamas is to blame. If Olmert and his cabinet give up this time, they will have no excuse.