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May 1, 2009
Afghanistan Insurgent Attacks Compared to Iraq
Via Kimberly Kagan's excellent Institute for the Study of War comes this from their latest newsletter:
Recently, news stories out of Afghanistan have focused heavily on the increase in violence there. As the U.S. sends more troops into the country to improve the security situation, the upward trend of violence is certainly concerning. However, it is helpful to put the violence into perspective. A new ISW Graph shows how violence levels in Afghanistan compare to violence levels in Iraq. The ISW Graph provides a startling sense of what is happening on the ground in Afghanistan.
And here is the graph:
I realize it's not completely clear, so follow the link to where you can download it from the Understanding War site directly.
Not to minimize the situation in Afghanistan, but it is useful to put it into perspective. Taking it a step further, via the CIA Factbook here are the population figures for the two countries:
Iraq
Total area: 437,072 sq km
Area comparative: slightly more than twice the size of Idaho
Population 28,945,657 (July 2009 est.)
Afghanistan
Total area: total: 647,500 sq km
Area comparative: slightly smaller than Texas
Population: 33,609,937 (July 2009 est.)
Analysis
I think most people intuitively know that Afghanistan is the less violent of the two wars, and yet it is still useful to see the actual numbers. However, I've read that American casualties are the same in the two wars on a percentage basis, so when we say Afghanistan is less violent we mean as per the population, not the risk to our troops.
The graph also shows just how violent Iraq really was when things went south in 2006, and really even before then. Had we not instituted the surge things would certainly have spiraled out of control. By the same token, the dramatic improvements in Iraq are made clear as well.
As for Afghanistan, it's not that the violence has really gotten worse, it's just that I think we've noticed it more. There have been some ups and downs but you can't really say there's any trend upward. Senior commanders have said in briefings (covered here) that in the last year or so the insurgents have switched tactics from attacking coalition troops to attacking civilians. This is what their jihadist brothers did in Iraq, and it nearly worked.
All this said, American casualties have been going up in Afghanistan, perhaps because of the increased emphasis there. See icasualties.org for complete details. I am unable to copy their charts and do not have time to recreate them here.
Posted by Tom at May 1, 2009 7:00 AM
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