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January 19, 2010
Scott Brown Wins in Massachusetts!
In a huge victory for Republicans and a tremendous loss for Democrats, Scott Brown has won the special election for U.S. Senate against Martha Coakley. Not more than two weeks ago it was assumed that Coakely would win in what seemed a safe seat for Democrats. When Brown pulled closer and closer in the polls, national attention focused on the race. It was seen as especially important because the Democrats need all 60 Senate seats to maintain a filibuster in the face of united Republican opposition to their healthcare proposals.
Massachusetts has not elected a Republican as senator since 1972.
As of this writing, Fox News reports that "with 97 percent of precincts reporting, returns showed Brown leading Coakley 52-47 percent, by a margin of 120,000 votes. Independent candidate Joseph Kennedy was pulling 1 percent."
Watching the returns
Here's the "Massachusetts Miracle" video that made the rounds recently.
Why Did Democrats Lose?
Democrats may comfort themselves over their losses in New Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts by telling themselves that Corzine, Deeds, and Coakley were miserable candidates. They can console themselves by pointing out that McDonnell and Brown were excellent candidates. They can do so and be accurate in these observations.
But if that's all they do they they're missing the boat (so good for my side). All three of these elections were nationalized. Tip O'Neil's maxim that "all politics is local" is not nearly as true as it was 40 years ago. These races were run on national issues more than local ones.
More, the Republican candidates all explicitly ran against Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and their agenda. Not only did this not cost them, it very much worked to their benefit. I can tell you from my experience in Virginia that our side was energized not just to work and vote for Bob McDonnell, but to work and vote against Obama-Pelosi-Reid.
Lessons for Republicans
Run against the policies of Obama-Pelosi-Reid, but do so carefully. Do NOT personally attack the president. Do not lead with social issues. Fiscal responsibility, jobs and the economy, and national security are your primary winning issues.
Good candidates also matter tremendously. Bob McDonnell and Scott Brown are charismatic and attractive to voters. Chris Christie was less so, but he didn't turn off voters as much as Corzine did.
When we do get back into power, we must not behave like Obama-Pelosi-Reid ourselves, or for that matter the Republican leaders in Congress under George W. Bush. Radio talk show attitudes are all very fine for the airwaves, but the general public isn't into that sort fo thing.
Winning take good candidates, good ideas, and a good ground game. it also taks a bit of luck and some timing. Put them all together and we can win anywhere. Let's not "write off" any state or any district.
Lessons for Democrats
Trying to ram through your healthcare package on a straight party-line vote is a bad idea. Compromise with the Republicans or face more defeats. Let C-SPAN broadcast your healthcare negotiations. Springing 1,800 page bills on us and then hurriedly voting on them before anyone has had a chance to go through them does not encourage trust. No more "stimulus" packages. And stop nominating such lackluster candidates.
Update
Posted by Tom at January 19, 2010 11:00 PM
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Comments
Tom: This is good news! Congrats Scott Brown!
I also think it helped that he ran a "clean" campaign, just like Christie in NJ. I've always said one didn't have to run a dirty campaign to win. I hope more candidates practice this type of campaign.
Posted by: Pamela D. Hart at January 20, 2010 12:25 AM
You did a balanced and fairly objective run-down with "lessons". I would also add that Coakley was way too over-confident. She was lazy, arrogant and really just didn't seem to even pretend to try and connect with voters in Mass.
Posted by: jason at January 23, 2010 8:59 AM
However, I have noticed one odd thing about Scott Brown. Conservatives are rightly gleeful that he will help kill healthcare reform. Many attribute his success to the blowback from the healthcare bill. But the really interesting thing is that as a Massachusetts state senator, he (along with Mitt Romney), both supported and voted for the universal coverage in that state.
In this sense, conservatives are becoming irrational in their hatred of Obama. Romney and Brown supported universal coverage, but now the "conservative movement" is rabid about stopping this bill, and has made Brown into their 'hero' to save them from Socialized Medicine.
Posted by: jason at January 23, 2010 9:07 PM
