The Redhunter

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Gen. Odierno says that the moment he first thought a surge could work was in December 2006, when he learned that seven of Anbar Province's 13 tribes had decided to fight al Qaeda and join the political process. Fitting, since counterinsurgency doctrine emphasizes the imperative of earning the trust and support of the local population.

But trust earned must become trust maintained. That's the challenge going forward. Already some senior Iraqi leaders are suggesting that the U.S. drawdown is overly hasty. Lt. Gen. Babakir Zebari, the chief of staff of the Iraqi joint forces, said last month that "the U.S. army must stay until the Iraqi army is fully ready in 2020." Ayad Allawi, the leading vote-getter in March's election, recently agreed: "It may well take another 10 years," he told Der Spiegel.

Gen. Odierno says he isn't surprised by such comments. He adds: "If the new [Iraqi] government comes on board and says we still think we need some assistance beyond 2011 . . . I think we'll listen."

With a little help from Steve Shippert of Threatswatch, I explained in July of 2008 what really happened in the Sunni awakening in al Anbar and how Obama and the liberal left had it all wrong. The short story is that the awakening and stand down of the Shi'a militias did not occur separately from the surge but as a part of it.

More, what Odierno demonstrates that the notion that the Iraqis (or Afghanis) would be motivated to "step up," defend themselves, and "get their act together" if we threatened to leave is complete hogwash. Human nature just doesn't work that way. Threats to pull out only prompt them to hedge their bets by "making their arrangements" with the insurgents in case they lose. Only firm American resolve motivates the people to openly take our side.

As I have said about a zillion times, insurgencies are not World War II where you have a few years of intense fighting then that's it. They start up slowly, and then tend to explode as if out of nowhere. At this point either the insurgents get the upper hand and eventually win, or the government (with or without outside aid) gains the upper hand. Even if the latter occurs, it usually takes years to finally defeat an insurgency. Insurgencies end not with a bang but with a whimper, and it may be some time before you can be sure it's even over.

Finally, despite candidate Obama's rash and unwise promises on the campaign trail, we are going to be in Iraq for a long time. Odierno is probably right, even Obama will not want to be held responsible for losing Iraq.